Why should we vigorously develop the third pillar? At present, China follows the concept of “public pension plan + occupational pension insurance plan + personal savings plan” put forward by the world bank in 1994. The pension insurance system is divided into three pillars: basic pension insurance (the first pillar), enterprise annuity (the second pillar) and personal commercial pension insurance (the third pillar). The first pillar has a wide coverage, reaching 1.03 billion people, but the substitution rate is low, only about 40%, and the driving force for development growth is insufficient; Second, the number of employees participating in the steady growth is limited, but the real pension coverage can not be awakened.
All parties work together to build the third pillar pension system. On the basis of the above pillars, insurance, banks and public funds are also actively participating in the construction of the third pillar system. Commercial insurance companies have increased the penetration rate of customer protection through endowment insurance such as term life insurance and long-term savings insurance, and actively launched tax extended endowment insurance under the guidance of regulatory policies. However, at present, due to the small tax preference, the pilot effect is not as good as expected; However, the exclusive commercial endowment insurance launched last year has achieved preliminary results, and the pilot has been expanded to the whole country at present; In addition, the establishment of the national endowment insurance company will further promote the relationship between banks and insurance, and will focus on innovative pension financial services in the future. Since the introduction of pension financing last year, the bank is accelerating its capacity expansion, and the performance comparison benchmark is relatively considerable. The pension target fund has achieved a scale of 100 billion, and the advantages of long-term funds through the cycle are prominent.
Personal pension system: Innovation in inheritance and a new starting point of the third pillar. We summarized the six characteristics of the individual pension system: 1) the top-level design is raised again, and the strategic implementation has a more holistic view; 2) Independent decision-making of individual payment and implementation of account system; 3) The maximum annual payment is 12000 yuan, but it has a certain upward flexibility; 4) The State formulates preferential tax policies as the focus of follow-up attention; 5) Greatly liberalize the scope of investment and enhance the attractiveness of products; 6) Receive at the age of and guide long-term savings. In addition, drawing on the experience of the United States, we believe that there are four development paths for capacity expansion and quality improvement in the future: 1) tax preference is the key to enhance the enthusiasm of participating in individual pensions; 2) Accelerate the implementation of the account transfer mechanism with the account system as the core; 3) Based on the principle of openness, expand the main body of market participation and promote benign competition; 4) Market oriented, risk return competitiveness to enhance participation.
Trillion market space, diversified subjects, a hundred flowers bloom. Assuming that the relevant supporting policies are implemented in 2022, the individual pension system will be officially implemented in 2023. According to the upper limit of 12000 yuan per capita per year and the participation base of residents enjoying marginal tax preference, China’s individual pension is expected to realize an incremental market of about 1 trillion yuan by 2030. In the diversified market pattern, commercial banks have rich customer resources and account advantages; Insurance products have outstanding advantages, which need to ensure uniqueness and return on investment to enhance and consolidate competitiveness; The fund investment system is mature, focusing on innovative products and excellent returns.
Investment proposal and investment object
The individual pension market is an ultra long-term broad market continuously promoted by the state in the top-level design. Under the background of the aggravation of the aging population and the lack of support for the first and second pillars, it is the main driving force of insurance companies and maintains the optimistic rating of the industry.
Recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) ( Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , buy) to strengthen the reform of life insurance and deepen the coordination of comprehensive finance and medical health; It is suggested to pay attention to the initial results of the health care industry, and “Changhang partners” build a high-quality agent team China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) ( China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , not rated); And AIA, the value benchmark of life insurance and deepening the multi regional layout of Asia Pacific (01299, not rated).
Risk tips
The instability of residents’ income has increased, the promotion of policies is less than expected, the progress of product innovation is less than expected, the capital market fluctuates sharply, and the assumption is not established.
