TSMC indicated at the 2021q4 performance presentation that in USD terms, Q4 revenue increased by 5.8% month on month, Q4 gross profit margin expanded by 1.4 percentage points month on month to 52.7%, Q4 EPS was NT $6.41 and roe was 31.3%. Q4’s capital expenditure was $8.46 billion Taiwan. Meanwhile, in 2021, the annual revenue increased by 24.9%, the gross profit margin was 51.6%, the roe was 29.7%, and the capital expenditure was about US $30 billion.
Core content of the meeting
Q4 revenue and profit increased at the same time, with advanced processes as the main source of revenue. Q4’s revenue was US $15.74 billion, with a month on month increase of 5.8%, Q4’s gross profit margin expanded by 1.4 percentage points to 52.7%, and the operating profit margin expanded by 0.5 percentage points to 41.7%. Q4 advanced process revenue (7Nm and below) accounts for 50%, including 7Nm process revenue accounting for 27% of the total wafer revenue and 5nm process revenue accounting for 23%. In 2021, the contribution of advanced process revenue accounted for 50%, higher than 41% in 2020. Among them, 5nm accounted for 19% and 7Nm accounted for 21%.
The supply chain will continue to maintain a high level of inventory, and the capacity shortage will continue in 2022. The supply chain is expected to maintain a high inventory level in 2022. Various industries ensure supply security, short-term imbalances may continue, and production capacity is expected to remain tight until 2022. In terms of the number of terminals, the strong momentum of some market segments may slow down or adjust. However, the increase of unit silicon content is a more important factor supporting the strong demand for semiconductors and will continue.
The advanced process n4p / n4x / N3 / n3e will be mass produced this year and next. The company’s N5 process node has entered the third year of mass production, and the market demand is still strong. Driven by smart phones, HPC and other applications, N5 has proved to be the most competitive advanced process in the industry. The company launched n4p / n4x / N3 / n3e and other advanced process products to comprehensively improve the performance, efficiency, energy consumption and density of the whole series. Since n3e is still in the technical preparation stage, it is expected to implement mass production in one year. N3 process will be put into operation in the second half of 2022, and N3 will use FinFET architecture.
Investment advice
The global epidemic is repeated, the global semiconductor is still in shortage, the emergency inventory of downstream terminal manufacturers, the capacity expansion of wafer factories is imperative, and the supply of semiconductor equipment is in short supply.
Due to the superposition of factors such as industrial transfer, equipment localization and high industry outlook, the recommended combination of semiconductor equipment sector continues to be strongly recommended: shengmei Shanghai, Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , etc.
Main risks of rating
The uncertainty of geopolitical friction; Uncertainty of parts supply chain security.
