1. 22q1 overview
Profit: the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased year-on-year. Xinhua’s decline exceeded expectations (- 78.7%), roe generally decreased, and Xinhua’s decline was the largest (- 4.9pt).
Scale: PICC achieved the only positive growth in operating revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; Ping An achieved the only positive growth in net assets, with a month on month increase of 1.8%.
2. Business by business
Life insurance: ① NBV: Ping An, Guoshou and AIA decreased year on year, of which Ping An decreased the most, by 33.7%. ② New policy Premium: Guoshou, Xinhua, AIA and ping an all decreased, and the decline increased in turn; The premiums of CPIC and PICC increased by 22.2% and 36.0% respectively.
Property insurance: ① total premium: both achieved rapid growth of more than double digits, with an average growth rate of 12.2%. CPIC grew the fastest (14%), followed by PICC (12.2%) and Ping An (10.3%). ② Comprehensive cost rate (COR): Overall, it was slightly better than expected, CPIC and PICC improved slightly, and ping an increased by 1.6pt year-on-year.
Investment: the investment scale increased slightly, with an average year-on-year increase of 2.2%. Affected by the fluctuation of capital market and the decline of interest rate, the investment income decreased significantly than expected, and the total investment income decreased the most, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9pt.
Solvency: the core solvency of life insurance companies decreased significantly month on month, from 232.4% to 149.2% on average, with a decrease of 83.2pt; The overall solvency of life insurance has changed little. The core and comprehensive solvency of property insurance companies decreased significantly due to the implementation of the second generation of compensation rules (II).
3. Prospect of 22q2
Liability side: due to the low base and the decrease of manpower month on month, the decline of life insurance is expected to narrow; Affected by the seasonality, the property insurance premium is expected to decline and cor will rise.
Investment side: due to the large centralized adjustment of the stock market in Q1, the risk is released, and the downward space of the superimposed long-term interest rate is limited, the overall investment is expected to improve.
Investment suggestion: Life Insurance focuses on individual stocks with basically stable team and good structure, corresponding to Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , AIA, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) ; Property insurance focuses on the leader with sound fundamentals and improved concentration, which corresponds to China’s property insurance.
4. Risk warning: China’s epidemic situation is repeated and the macro-economy stalls; Real estate risk expansion; The long-term interest rate fell sharply; Large fluctuations in the capital market; The policy of strict supervision has intensified.
