Industry: the market fluctuates greatly, and the fund sales are under pressure as a whole, but the market share of head institutions is still increasing.
Total amount: in 2022q1, the top 100 institutional equity (stock + mixed) funds were sold on a commission basis, with a scale of 5.91 trillion yuan, a net decrease of 8.6% compared with the beginning of the year, and the scale of non commodity funds was 7.88 trillion yuan, a net decrease of 5.3% compared with the beginning of the year;
Structure: the ownership scale of equity (stock + mixed) decreased greatly, mainly due to the large fluctuation of stock price, while the yield of debt base was relatively stable. According to the calculation of wind data, the shares of newly issued stocks, mixed stocks and debt bases in 22q1 were 21.9 billion, 134.4 billion and 99.4 billion respectively, down 72.2%, 35.8% and 67.2% compared with the beginning of the year. However, at the end of March, the total net value of the debt base was 7.1 trillion yuan, a steady increase of 2.48% over the beginning of the year. In contrast, the net value of stock type and hybrid type decreased by 12.6% and 14.2% respectively.
Market share: the market share of equity and non monetary funds of Top100 institutions was 80.2% and 52.6% respectively, an increase of 4.5pc and 0.6pc respectively over the beginning of the year. When the market fluctuates greatly, the head institutions have a strong level of investment advice and comprehensive service ability, and can also win the trust of customers, while small and medium-sized institutions are under greater pressure.
Although Q1 market fluctuates greatly, there is no obvious “Redemption”, and many investors may still “increase their holdings”.
The decline in the size of the top 100 Holdings (equity – 8.6%) the decline in the size of the whole market fund (stocks and hybrid fell 12.6% and 14.2% respectively) ≈ the decline in the market share price (wind all a index Q1 fell 13.9%), or it indicates that the decline in the net value of Q1 mainly comes from the decline in the share price rather than a large number of “redemptions”.
While the share price has fallen, the shares of various funds are still rising. The shares of Q1 stock, hybrid and bond funds increased by 7.6%, 0.8% and 3.5% respectively. In particular, the share growth rate of equity funds increased by 0.9pc compared with 21q4. In April, when the wind all a index fell further by 9.5%, the shares of the three types of funds still increased by 2.8%, 0.2% and 1.0%.
Various types of consignment agencies: the shares of banks and independent sales agencies have decreased, and the shares of securities companies have increased significantly, or partly due to the caliber adjustment. In the top 100 list, the ranking by scale is as follows:
A. equity funds (stock + hybrid), banks (3.25 trillion yuan), independent sales institutions (1.49 trillion yuan) and securities companies (1.14 trillion yuan), with growth rates of – 14.2%, – 12.6% and + 21.0% respectively compared with the beginning of the year, and the market share was 44.1%, 20.2% and 15.8% respectively. Banks and independent sales institutions were -0.25pc and + 0.59pc respectively compared with the beginning of the year, and the market share of securities companies increased by 4.44pc;
B. non monetary funds, including banks (3.84 trillion yuan), independent sales institutions (2.74 trillion yuan) and securities companies (1.25 trillion yuan), increased by – 12.5%, – 56.6% and + 170.2% respectively over the beginning of the year, with market share of 25.7%, 18.3% and 8.3% respectively. Banks and independent sales institutions increased by – 1.79pc and + 0.63pc respectively over the beginning of the year, and the market share of securities companies increased by 1.98pc;
22q1 the scale of securities companies increased sharply against the market, or partly due to the change of statistical caliber. That is, ETF adopts the point value statistics at the end of the quarter, and the net purchase amount (including the purchase part of the secondary market) is no longer deducted. Therefore, ETF business performs better than the data of securities companies with advantages.
In terms of specific mechanism, the head mechanism has decreased.
A. independent consignment agencies, three giants ant fund, Tiantian fund and tengan fund, and the scale of non commodity basic insurance increased by – 15.6%, – 13.6% and – 10.5% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. Among the independent sales agencies, only Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) equity fund sales scale achieved an increase of 1.72% over the beginning of the year. In addition, snowball fund entered the top 100 for the first time, with a scale of 26.2 billion yuan, ranking 41st;
B. bank, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) 22q1 (stock + hybrid) fund has 679.8 billion shares, which continues to rank first in the whole industry, but its scale is 14.1% lower than that at the beginning of the year, and the non commodity base guarantee is 759.6 billion, 12.7% lower than that at the beginning of the year. Most bank equity and non monetary funds in the top 50 decreased by more than 10% compared with the beginning of the year;
C. securities companies have benefited from the caliber adjustment and their ranking has been improved. Among them, the scale of 22q1 Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) stock + hybrid fund was 123 billion yuan, which was + 44.7pc compared with the beginning of the year, surpassing Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and jumped to the first among securities companies.
In general, although the 22q1 market fluctuated, resulting in the decline of fund ownership, the fund share continued to grow, and the logic of increasing medium and long-term demand for wealth management remained unchanged. The more during this period, institutions that actively expand wealth management business, provide good services, accompany investors and seize the market will be more competitive and elastic with the recovery of the market in the future.
II. Regular data tracking:
Equity market tracking:
1) trading volume: the average daily turnover of stocks this week was 892101 yuan, an increase of 94.264 billion yuan over last week.
2) two financing: the balance is 1.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.68% over last week.
3) fund issuance: non monetary funds issued 29.808 billion shares this week, down 1.618 billion from last week. In April, a total of 83.512 billion shares were issued, a year-on-year decrease of 56.048 billion and a month on month decrease of 37.73 billion. Among them, the stock type was 5.590 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.041 billion and a month on month decrease of 960 million; Hybrid 8.475 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 63.078 billion and a month on month decrease of 26.488 billion.
According to the calculation of wind data, the shares of newly issued stocks, mixed stocks and debt bases in 22q1 were 21.9 billion, 134.4 billion and 99.4 billion respectively, down 72.2%, 35.8% and 67.2% month on month compared with 21q4. However, at the end of March, the total net value of the debt base was 7.1 trillion yuan, a steady increase of 2.48% over the beginning of the year. In contrast, the net values of equity and hybrid types decreased by 12.6% and 14.2% respectively.
Interest rate market tracking:
1) interbank certificates of deposit: A. volume: according to wind data, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 0.24 trillion yuan, a decrease of 425.77 billion yuan from last week; Since April, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has been 1.80 trillion yuan, and the current balance of interbank certificates of deposit is 14.49 trillion yuan, a decrease of 103.38 billion yuan compared with the end of March; B. Price: the issuing rate of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 2.27%, down 9bps from last week; Since April, the issue interest rate has been 2.41%, down 13bps from March.
2) Bill interest rate: the 3-month discount rate of bank notes of large state-owned banks + joint-stock banks this week was 0.93%, down 83bps from last week; The average interest rate in April was 1.61%, down 37bps from March. The three-month bank note discount rate of urban commercial banks was 1.12%, down 74bps from last week, and the average interest rate in April was 1.73%, down 41bps from last month.
3) yield of 10-year Treasury bonds: the average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds this week was 2.83%, up 1bps from last week.
4) issuance scale of local government special bonds: 65.012 billion new special bonds were issued this week, 54.862 billion more than last week. Since the beginning of the year, a total of 1.40 trillion bonds have been issued. The annual budget of local special bonds in 2022 is 3.65 trillion.
Risk tip: the risks of real estate enterprises erupt intensively, and the macro-economy goes down; The promotion of capital market reform policy is less than expected; The sales of guaranteed products of insurance companies were lower than expected.
