The performance of Dianxin is better than the industry average. The net profit of power equipment and new energy industry in 2021 was about 144.9 billion yuan, ranking the 11th. The net profit increased by 32% year-on-year, outperforming the industry median by 8%; In 2022, Q1’s net profit totaled 48.1 billion yuan, ranking 10th. The net profit increased by 30% year-on-year, significantly outperforming the industry median by 34%.
The price of sectorau materials benefits the middle and upper reaches and puts pressure on the lower reaches. In the second half of 2021 and 2022, the rapid rise in the price of Q1 lithium carbonate and other raw materials is the fundamental reason for the large-scale performance of upstream material enterprises to exceed expectations. In contrast, the downstream battery enterprises have a negative year-on-year increase in net profit, with a median performance growth of – 28%. The performance of most companies is less than expected, and the profit distribution of the industrial chain is obviously inclined to the upstream.
Upstream raw materials are in the price rise cycle, or will further thicken profits. In the medium and long term, lithium carbonate will remain in a tight balance. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain high this year, driving the continuous high growth of relevant industrial chains and company performance.
The performance elasticity of cathode materials mainly comes from downstream demand. The cathode enters the price rise cycle, and the supply and demand of graphitization link is difficult to slow down. Driven by the price rise and demand, the performance of Q1 cathode material enterprises increased significantly in 2021 and 2022. In the future, the performance elasticity of cathode material enterprises will be more from the growth of downstream demand. The negative electrode graphitization capacity is still seriously affected by the dual control of energy consumption. The review of environmental protection has a great impact on the production expansion progress of the project. It is difficult to complete the capacity climbing work for the short-term graphitization capacity. It is expected that the graphitization supply in short supply will continue in the next year, and the negative electrode material price is difficult to fall back.
Electrolyte integration enterprises may dominate, and the release of diaphragm supply and demand may be lower than expected. With the subsequent production capacity release of the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate, VC and other materials, the relationship between supply and demand has eased. In the process of price decline, integrated enterprises with a high proportion of long-term cooperation are expected to maintain a high growth rate in the price decline cycle. Diaphragm is subject to factors such as long production expansion cycle of diaphragm equipment and limited equipment supply. The supply is released or lower than expected. The price of short-term dry and wet diaphragm is also expected to continue to rise, driving the full release of the performance of relevant enterprises.
In the first half of the year, the cost side of lithium battery was under pressure, and the performance in the second half of the year was expected to improve. The performance of the lithium battery sector in the first and second quarters is difficult to perform due to the impact of cost pressure and the epidemic. The order probability after the price increase will be confirmed in the third quarter. Therefore, from the second half of the year and even in the long run, there is a possibility of profit improvement and a certain expectation difference.
It is suggested to pay attention to the positive and negative sectors ( Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) etc.) benefiting from the price rise of raw materials and the tight supply and demand of graphitization, as well as the diaphragm sector ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) etc.) with tight supply and demand and the expected increase of future performance ( Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) etc.).
Risk tips: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the upstream price continues to rise sharply, and the epidemic prevention and control is not active.
