\u3000\u3000 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (000001)
Data overview
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 25.6% year-on-year, and the revenue was + 10.3% year-on-year. ROE10. 9%, year-on-year + 1.3pc; The defective rate was 1.02%, with a chain ratio of -3bp; The provision coverage rate was 288%, month on month + 20pc.
Core view
1. Why did the profit growth margin fall? Under the background of downward economic growth superimposed with 20q4 high base, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) profits are more "hidden" in provisions, rather than weakening real profitability. The provision coverage of 21q4 has increased significantly by 20pc month on month. If the provision level is flat month on month compared with the third quarter, the profit growth rate can be as high as 42%, and the profit momentum is actually very strong.
2. Whether the revenue momentum continues to improve?
In 2021q4, the single quarter revenue was + 14.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was + 2.9pc month on month, continuing the improvement trend in the third quarter. Looking ahead, with the recovery of credit card business and the recovery of AUM growth, it is expected that the revenue will still grow rapidly.
3. Is the non-performing rate affected by the real estate?
At the end of 2021a, the NPL ratio was -3bp to 1.02% month on month, reaching the best level since 2014. It is speculated that the NPL ratio of real estate loans is still improving month on month, which can dispel some investors' doubts about the risk of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) real estate loans. Overdue 60 + deviation 85%, also at a historical low, indicating that the asset quality is solid and stable.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) from 2022 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 15.40% / 15.36% year-on-year, corresponding to bps18 56 / 20.65 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 0.91/0.82 times of Pb valuation. Maintain the target price of RMB 33.03, corresponding to pb1.00 in 2022 78x, the current price corresponds to pb0.00 in 2022 91x, 95% of the current price space.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and significant exposure of adverse.
