Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: 21 year annual report and 22 year 1 quarterly report of food and beverage industry
The revenue and profit of the food and beverage industry recovered, the net profit continued to grow and the growth rate increased, and the profitability of the industry improved. The stock price fell, the valuation level was further reduced, and investment opportunities were highlighted. The Baijiu sector is growing, becoming the second-class sub industry with the largest revenue in the food and beverage industry. In addition, it is beverage dairy and food processing. The net profit of Baijiu industry accounts for the absolute majority of the food and beverage sector, and the proportion is still increasing. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Baijiu industry in 22q1 accounted for 74.48% of the food and beverage sector, with a significant increase compared with 20q1 and 21q1.
In terms of growth certainty, Baijiu is still the most deterministic sub industry in food and beverage. The revenue growth rate of Baijiu industry in 22q1 was 19.42%, which was only 3.52pct lower than the 22.94% growth rate of 21q1. The receivable growth rate of other sub industries except snack food fell by more than 10PCT in 22q1. 22q1 Baijiu industry’s net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 8.4% year-on-year, making it the only sub industry in the food and beverage industry to achieve a positive year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company.
High end Baijiu
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the performance has increased steadily and performed well. In the 21st year, the revenue was 106.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.9%; 22q1 revenue was 32.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%. The increase in revenue growth of 22q1 mainly benefited from the increase in the proportion of non-standard liquor. The series of liquor continued to grow at a high speed, and Maotai 1935 and other new products were launched. In 21 years, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%; 22q1 net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : performance meets expectations. In 21 years, the revenue reached 66.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.51%, and 22q1 revenue reached 27.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.25%.
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the optimization of product structure and the improvement of volume and price contribute to high performance. In the 21st year, the revenue reached 20.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.96%, mainly benefiting from the adjustment of product structure. Among them, the proportion of medium and high-end products increased by 3.63 PCT to 89.12%. 22q1’s revenue was 6.312 billion yuan, an increase of 26.15% year-on-year. Guojiao 1573 products continued to grow steadily, and the new price system also made a certain contribution to the performance. Secondary high-end Baijiu
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : blue and white take off. The revenue of 21 years was 19.971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.75%, mainly benefiting from the rapid growth of blue and white series of more than 50%. 22q1 revenue was 10.53 billion yuan, an increase of 43.62% year-on-year. Among them, Qinghua continued to maintain rapid growth, and laobaifen had good sales during the Spring Festival.
Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : two wheel drive has achieved results. In the 21st year, the revenue was 4.969 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 83.8%, of which shede / Tuopai accounted for about 8:2. 22q1 revenue was 1.884 billion yuan, an increase of 83.25% year-on-year. Regional Baijiu
in Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) 21, the revenue reached 13.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.93%, of which the volume / price increased by 24.9% / – 6.7% year-on-year; 22q1 achieved a revenue of 5.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%. Beer: in the high-end interpretation, the most promising dark horse is born.
21. The sales volume picked up slightly, and the heavy beer increased significantly. In 21 years, the national beer production increased by 5.6% year-on-year, ending the downward trend since 2013, but the overall sales volume is still in the downward range, down 1.8% compared with 19. The sales volume of Tsingtao Beer / heavy beer / Yanjing beer was 793 / 279 / 3.62 million kiloliters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4% / 15.1% / 2.4%.
The ton price has increased, and the high-end continues to be deduced. In 21 years, the ton price of Tsing beer / heavy beer / Yanjing / Pearl River increased by 7% / 5% / 8.4% / – 0.5% year-on-year, and most of them went up. Among them, heavy beer and green beer directly raise the price of many products; In addition, the proportion of medium and high-grade products of heavy beer and green beer increased significantly.
Industry concentration was further improved. The concentration of the revenue proportion of A-share beer enterprises further increased, only the proportion of Tsing beer and heavy beer increased, and the revenue proportion of beer enterprises such as Yanjing, Zhujiang and Huiquan decreased.
Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) revenue increased significantly. Compared with the revenue growth of the three phases in 2020, 2021 and 2022q1, only heavy beer achieved year-on-year growth in each phase, and the overall growth rate was significantly higher than that of other companies. The revenue of Tsingtao beer in 21 years and 22q1 also increased slightly, but less than that of heavy beer Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) 22q1’s revenue increased by 11.7%, second to St Xifa and heavy beer. Although the growth rate is higher than that of other companies, the gap with heavy beer has begun to appear gradually.
Market Review
In the recent week, the food and beverage index rose or fell by +0.69%, ranking fourth among the 28 industries in Shenwan, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.62pct. Among the sub industries, the pre processed food (+2.2%), Baijiu (+2.19%), and flavored fermented products (-0.8%) performed relatively well.
Top 5 gainers of individual stocks: Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co.Ltd(002646)
Top 5 stocks with declines: Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) , Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) , Qingdao Foods Co.Ltd(001219) , Tianjin Guifaxiang 18Th Street Mahua Food Co.Ltd(002820) , Three Squirrels Inc(300783)
Investment strategy
Key recommendations: 1 Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , are recommended for companies that occupy a leading position in subdivided fields and have a good competitive pattern and strong ability to raise prices. 2. The milk industry giant Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , which is basically stable in normal temperature and low temperature milk, has made great efforts in infant powder and cheese business, and has achieved good results in the beginning of the year. 3. For the beer industry with improved competition pattern and high-end certainty, recommend Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , China Resources beer and pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) . 4. Ternary organism with strong downstream demand, limited upstream bargaining power and leading position in oligopoly pattern in horizontal competition.
