This week’s view
Steel industry: it is worth looking forward to the month on month recovery of demand in May
Steel prices fell slightly. As of April 29, thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod closed at 5098 yuan / ton, 5100 yuan / ton, 5211 yuan / ton, 5569 yuan / ton and 5449 yuan / ton respectively this week, with a slight decrease of 1.00%, 1.91%, 1.03%, 1.53% and 0.9% respectively.
The social inventory continued to decline to 15.747 million tons this week. The inventory of main steel mills increased slightly to 6.884 million tons.
Gross profit per ton of steel continued to narrow. The gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod was 158 yuan, 79 yuan, – 49 yuan, 27 yuan and 391 yuan respectively, with changes of + 8 yuan, – 41 yuan, 8 yuan, – 4 yuan and 16 yuan respectively compared with last week.
In the short term, there are still factors restricting the steel market in the early stage, and the demand has not been fulfilled. However, after the May Day holiday, the logistics is expected to recover significantly, and the demand for replenishment from downstream customers is still there, so there is little pressure on steel enterprises to receive orders. In terms of the construction industry, driven by the resumption of work and production, the month on month increase in demand for construction steel is still worth looking forward to. In the medium term, the Politburo meeting on April 29 proposed to strengthen macro policy adjustment, strive to achieve the annual economic growth target, comprehensively strengthen the implementation of infrastructure, and support all localities to improve real estate policies based on reality. Therefore, macro policies are expected to support steel demand in the future.
As the main focus of stabilizing the economy, in the field of infrastructure construction, water conservancy and municipal pipe network have been clearly reflected at the policy level. It is expected that with the end of the two sessions and the centralized bid opening and construction in various places, the pipeline demand is expected to be released in large quantities. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
For high-grade non oriented silicon steel, the government work report said that it would continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and the demand for non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles is expected to continue to maintain high growth. The supply side release is limited, and the profit of high-end silicon steel is expected to continue to break out this year. Attach importance to enterprises with high grade non oriented silicon steel production capacity. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (20212023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
Focus on the subject
Industrial sector companies: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) .
Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) .
Building materials companies: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Sgis Songshan Co.Ltd(000717) .
Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) .
Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509) .
Nonferrous Metals Industry: superimposed on the repeated covid-19 epidemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the market is pessimistic about the downstream demand, the short-term spot price surges and falls, the supply release is limited in the medium and long term, the price is expected to remain stable at a high level, and it is optimistic about the recovery of marginal demand caused by the resumption of production and work, and the revision of sector valuation
In the lithium sector, spodumene was quoted at US $3510 / ton this week, up 5.09% from last week; Lithium hydroxide quoted 469000 yuan / ton, down 0.53% from last week; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 461500 yuan / ton, down 1.18%. In rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 850000 yuan / ton, 2.59 million yuan / ton and 14.4 million yuan / ton this week, up 1.19%, 0% and 2.13% respectively.
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future, we are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency, energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era.
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices fell 1.88% this week to close at 73600 yuan / ton; SHFE aluminum price fell 4.70% to close at 20890 yuan / ton. This week, the yield of 10-year US bonds broke 3.0%, the first time since 2018; The expectation of raising interest rates in the market continues to heat up, and the yield of short-term US bonds also continues to rise; In the interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar was strong and suppressed commodities to a certain extent; At the beginning of May, the rate of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve was in line with expectations. After the expected interest rate increase was implemented, industrial metals are expected to rise periodically. In China, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has peaked and dropped, the resumption of work and production is urgent, and there is a strong willingness to support employment with steady growth. After the festival, China’s consumption is expected to catch up with work.
In terms of copper, protests in Peru have attacked many large copper mines, including Minmetals resources and Southern Copper industry, and community problems have intensified. According to Mysteel research, smelting enterprises extended the maintenance time due to the impact of the epidemic, and the supply of refined copper further contracted slightly. This week, the copper inventory in the previous period decreased by 21500 tons, and the inventory continued to decline sharply. At present, the global inventory is still at a historically low position, and the impact of the Chinese epidemic is weakening. Therefore, we believe that the demand will improve significantly after the end of the epidemic in the second quarter. The Fed’s interest rate hike is on the ground, and copper prices are expected to usher in a phased bullish window.
In terms of aluminum, the high profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry continue to stimulate more electrolytic aluminum enterprises to actively put into production and resume production. In the short term, Guangxi Tianlin and Yunnan Hongtai will further contribute to the output increment. In the second quarter, although the production progress slowed down slightly, it is still concentrated in April to May. The spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 987000 tons, down 29000 tons from last week. This week, the logistics in the Yangtze River Delta is gradually recovering, the shortage of raw materials and transportation constraints may be alleviated, and the recovery of downstream consumption is deducting. With the steady growth policy and the lifting of relevant restrictions, the recovery of downstream consumption is expected to be clear, and the current or demand inflection point.
Focus on the subject
\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 92 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) 6 Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) 01 Founder Technology Group Co.Ltd(600601) 899 Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
