Sales volume and cost: 1) in 2021, 21q4 and 22q1, the sales volume yoy of cars was + 3.8%, – 6.5% and + 0.3% respectively, and the growth rate of passenger cars was fast (+ 6.5%, – 2.4% and + 9.1%); 2) Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of raw materials in the upstream of 22q1 rose again, and the price QoQ of steel sector, copper, aluminum, rubber, PP and lithium carbonate were – 4.8%, + 0.6%, + 9.5%, + 0.4% and + 102.2% respectively.
Automobile sector: 1) in 2021, the revenue and attributable net profit yoy were + 9.1% and + 20.5% respectively, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin were 12.9% and 3.4% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.8pct and + 0.3pct respectively. 2) The performance of 21q4 was significantly lower than expected: ① the revenue and net profit yoy were – 6.1% and – 42.1% respectively; The gross profit rate, expense rate and net profit rate were 11.2%, 6.7% and 0.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.3pct, – 1.2pct and – 0.8pct respectively, and the profitability fell to a low level over the years; ② Among the 56 sample companies we selected, 77% of the company’s revenue was lower than expected, and 95% of the company’s attributable net profit was lower than expected. 2) 22q1 profitability improved month on month: revenue and net profit yoy were – 5.6% and – 14.3% respectively; The gross profit rate, expense rate and net profit rate were 12.8%, 7.2% and 4.0% respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 1.6%, + 0.5% and + 3.1% respectively; 22q1 impairment loss decreased significantly month on month, which is one of the important reasons for the improvement of profitability.
Passenger car sector: affected by the contraction of terminal discount and the price rise of some models, the gross profit margin of 22q1 passenger cars rebounded to 10.9%, with a month on month increase of + 1.9pct; The cost rate was 6.7%, with a chain comparison of + 0.8pct; The net interest rate rebounded to 4.1% month on month (MOM) + 2.3pct. Among important companies, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (+ 27%), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (+ 113%), Byd Company Limited(002594) (+ 241%) contributed to the main increment of profits.
Auto parts sector: 1) gross profit rate, expense rate and net profit rate of 22q1 were 16.5%, 7.5% and 5.1% respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 1.5pct, + 0.3pct and + 3.6pct respectively; 2) 22q1 Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) (96% / 34%), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (54% / 57%), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (54% / 39%), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (41% / 26%), Foryou Corporation(002906) (25% / 26%); 3) 22q1 Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) (23.2%), Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co.Ltd(603809) (21.0%), Jiangsu Olive Sensors High-Tech Co.Ltd(300507) (15.4%), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (13.9%), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (13.6%) and other companies have a net interest rate of more than 10% and strong profitability.
Outlook for 2022: since the outbreak in March, the secondary market has intensively lowered the performance forecast of the automobile sector for 22 years (based on the consistent expectation of wind at the end of December 2021). From January to April 2022, the revenue has been reduced by 0.4%, 0.5%, 1.1% and 2.4% respectively, and the net profit has been reduced by 0.7%, 2.0%, 7.4% and 14.5% respectively. The market’s reduction in income in the past 22 years is small, which reflects that under the premise of low energy utilization rate, it is expected to make up for the production loss caused by the epidemic in the second half of the year.
Investment suggestion: the bottom of the automobile sector may have appeared. Considering that the recovery process of automobile consumption may have twists and turns, the “bottom of the market” still needs to be tamped by consumption data, so the bottom may be repeated. In the medium and long term, we are strategically optimistic about the opportunities for the bottom configuration of the automobile sector. We suggest bargain hunting in the four directions of complete vehicle, Tesla industrial chain, intelligent vehicle and lightweight.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic on the production and demand of the automobile industry exceeded expectations, and the price rise of bulk commodities exceeded expectations; The progress of intellectualization and electrification is less than expected, and the rise of independent brands is less than expected.
