Weekly gathering of scientific and technological views (Communication)
1) China Mobile released 167000 servers, and the scale of centralized server purchase of the three operating airlines increased significantly this year. Since this year, China Mobile has collected 237000 publishing servers, a record high, most of which are expected to be delivered this year. According to our statistics, the three major operators have successively released 198000, 306000, 250000 and 453000 servers since 2019, of which the actual landing scale in 2021 may be close to that in 2020. In 2022, in order to cooperate with the construction of digital computing in the East and digital computing in the west, the three operators will invest in the network of computing power together. We expect that the centralized purchase scale of servers will be at least 450000, with a significant increase of 50% year-on-year.
2) how to view the server market in 2022? IDC predicts that the market size of China's x86 server market may increase by 12.2% year-on-year in 2022, reaching US $28.3 billion, higher than the global average growth rate. Although the current Internet industry is facing the regulatory pressure of peaking user dividends and disorderly expansion, the industry is driven by strong industries such as telecommunications and finance and the digital transformation of traditional industries. In 2021, Telecom has become the second largest server market in China, with strong performance in traditional industries such as finance, service industry, resource mining and manufacturing. In terms of competition pattern, Inspur has maintained its leading position in the server industry. Xinhua III, Dell, ZTE, Ningchang and others have benefited from Huawei's passive exit, and their share has increased to varying degrees. Hyperfusion has sprung up in mobile centralized mining. On the whole, we believe that beta in China's server market is relatively certain in 2022. Telecom has become an important force driving overall growth, the profitability of the industry may be slightly improved, and the industry pattern will further concentrate on the leading manufacturers with prominent advantages in supply chain management and R & D.
Investment advice
On April 29, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee established the firmness of the annual economic growth target. On May 1, Qiushi magazine published an important article emphasizing the important strategic role of scientific and technological innovation. At the same time, in the periphery, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has been fully priced by the market. We believe that the end of the market policy has passed, and there are no repressive factors in the style of the subsequent growth technology industry. In terms of fundamentals, according to our statistics, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the communication (Shenwan) industry in the first quarter increased by 10.2% year-on-year and 47% month on month. The good business performance of operators and main equipment has driven the optimistic performance outlook of the whole telecommunications industry. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, an experienced mode of resumption of work and production has been formed throughout the country, and the performance affected by the epidemic has been fully priced by the market. At present, we suggest that investors can be more optimistic and appropriately participate in the rebound of the communication industry on the premise of controlling their positions.
In May, we suggested continuing to pay attention to the three main lines of operators, communication equipment export and server industry chain that can continue to the second half of the year.
1) 5g and Gigabit broadband dividends continue to penetrate, the operator's C-end ARPU stabilizes and the upward trend remains unchanged, and the fixed network broadband ARPU value continues to improve under the Gigabit broadband and Zhijia strategy. Digital economy has become the main theme of industrial Internet this year, and the b-end aicde business of operators is expected to benefit fully. Among them, the share of mobile and telecom cloud computing continued to increase, and the proportion of b-end performance contribution continued to increase. Operators dominate the construction of computing power network, the attribute of science and innovation is gradually highlighted, and the valuation center is expected to rise. It is suggested to focus on China Mobile and China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) .
2) the wireless and broadband capital expenditure of North American telecom operators is expected to reach double-digit growth this year, driving the year-on-year high growth of China Ericsson Nokia supply chain and broadband equipment industry; North American top cloud manufacturers will further invest in several major cloud infrastructure, and the global data communication optical module market is expected to achieve a high growth rate of 25%; The global module industry continues to grow at a high rate. China's leading manufacturers have achieved comprehensive transcendence, with strong industry beta + leading alpha, and high investment certainty in the Internet of things sector. It's recommended to focus on the , Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) etc.
3) the capital expenditure of overseas cloud manufacturers continues to increase the size of data centers, the three major Chinese operators continue to promote the investment landing of Eastern digital computing and Western computing, and the beta certainty of the server industry chain is high. The four major marginal changes in the server market this year are the significant growth of the operator market, the increase in the proportion of domestic CPU platforms, the faster growth of accelerated computing servers, and the increase in the penetration of new technologies such as ddr5, pcie4 / 5 and DPU. We suggest paying attention to the head server manufacturers Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Zte Corporation(000063) and the server upstream chip manufacturers haiguang information (registered for release), Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) and jiangbolong (registered for release) and yihengchuangyuan (application for science and technology innovation) that have prominent advantages in supply chain management and R & D.
Risk tips
The scale of centralized server purchase and landing of operators is less than expected, the length of chips leads to the bottleneck of server batch supply, the delayed release of Intel's new server CPU leads to the delay of customer deployment, and the Sino US science and technology trade friction affects the security of supply chain.
