Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: summary of the 21-year annual report and the 22-year quarterly report of listed banks as of this week, A-share listed banks have disclosed the 2021 annual report and the 2022 quarterly report. This week, it mainly analyzes 38 listed banks.
The growth rate of 22q1 revenue and parent net profit of 38 listed banks fell month on month. From 2021 to 22q1, the revenue of listed banks was + 7.9% / + 5.6% year-on-year respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent was + 12.6% / + 8.6% year-on-year respectively. We attribute the performance of listed banks. The year-on-year growth of net profit attributable to the parent company is mainly driven by the provision for asset impairment, followed by the contribution of the expansion of the scale of interest bearing assets:
The year-on-year growth of net profit attributable to the parent is mainly driven by the provision for asset impairment. The contribution of the provision for asset impairment of joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks to the net profit attributable to the parent is 10.4%, 7.8% and 7.0% respectively. The contribution of the provision for asset impairment of state-owned banks to the net profit attributable to the parent is the least, only 2.1%.
The net interest margin of joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks dragged down the net profit attributable to the parent company by – 4.6%, – 4.3% and – 5%, mainly due to the large downward range of asset side yield. On the one hand, due to the decline of LPR, loan repricing led to the decline of loan yield, and the increase of bank bill discount ratio dragged down the loan side yield. On the other hand, the decline of market interest rate also led to the decline of interbank assets and financial investment assets yield.
The contribution of net income from handling fees and commissions weakened, and the year-on-year growth of net income from bank handling fees and commissions slowed significantly due to the fluctuation of capital market and frequent risks of real estate projects. Provision coverage provides strong support for risk disposal. Asset quality indicators have improved, but many banks are concerned about the rise of loan ratio, asset quality still has certain potential risks, and the overall bank provision coverage is still at a good level, providing strong support for risk disposal.
From 2021 to 22q1, the non-performing loan ratio of listed banks was 1.34% / 1.32%, with a month on month ratio of – 5bps / – 2bps. The provision coverage rate was 237.39% / 240.79%, with a month on month ratio of + 6.6% / + 3.4%. The continuous improvement of non-performing loan ratio of listed banks is mainly due to the increase of non-performing disposal in recent years, and the asset quality is at a good level in recent years.
From the perspective of . The overall bank provision coverage is still at a good level, providing strong support for risk disposal. Investment strategy: according to the disclosed annual reports and quarterly reports of listed banks, under the impact of the macroeconomic downturn, the growth of bank revenue and net profit attributable to the parent slowed down, which was mainly affected by the rhythm of loan delivery, the decline of net interest margin and the slowdown of intermediate business income, and there were some disturbances in the asset quality of some banks. Since the second quarter, the easing policy has continued to increase, which helps to alleviate the pressure on asset quality and net interest margin faced by banks, and the bank’s operating environment has improved marginally. We suggest paying attention to two types of banks: the first is large state-owned banks. Infrastructure investment is the core driving factor of this steady growth. Benefiting from this, it is expected that the credit supply of state-owned banks will continue to increase year-on-year. We suggest paying attention to state-owned banks with excellent fundamentals, such as Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) . The second category is urban and rural commercial banks with excellent regional location. From the perspective of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) that have disclosed the first quarterly report of 22 years, they both show the characteristics of booming deposits and loans and continuous improvement of asset quality. It is suggested to close Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) .
Performance of sector & individual stocks: this week, the banking sector fell – 3.16%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.23 percentage points. Banks rose or fell 22 / 30. Among them, state-owned banks fell – 1.73%, joint-stock banks fell – 4.25%, urban commercial banks fell – 2.27%, and rural commercial banks fell – 3.15%. In terms of specific stocks, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (+ 3.01%), China Zheshang Bank Co.Ltd(601916) (+ 2.16%), Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (+ 0.07%) increased the most, and Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) (- 8.72%), Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) (- 7.76%) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) (- 6.55%) increased the least.
Risk warning: policy risk; The risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; Covid-19 is at risk of continued deterioration.
