\u3000\u3000 Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) (601015)
Event: on January 13, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will increase by 1.306 billion yuan – 1.406 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 672.5% – 724%.
In the fourth quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased month on month. According to the announcement, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 1.5 billion ~ 1.6 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 672.50% ~ 724.00% compared with the same period of last year (after adjustment), which is in line with market expectations. According to this calculation, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the fourth quarter was 276 million yuan ~ 376 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 2.59% ~ 28.5%. We believe that the decline of the company’s profit in the fourth quarter was mainly affected by the decline in capacity utilization caused by the tightening of Q4 environmental protection inspection and other reasons. The output of the company’s main products fell month on month.
Coke: production and sales fell month on month and prices rose month on month. According to the announcement, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved a coke output of 1201200 tons, a month on month decrease of 12.9%, a coke sales volume of 1025300 tons, a month on month decrease of 33.91%, and the selling price of tons of coke was 3039.27 yuan, a month on month increase of 19.25%.
Tar: higher prices, lower production and sales. According to the announcement, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved a tar output of 45800 tons and a sales volume of 42700 tons, down 11.65% and 26.04% respectively month on month. The selling price of tar in the fourth quarter was 3981.01 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.88% month on month.
Crude benzene: volume and price fell month on month. According to the announcement, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the crude benzene production and sales volume of the company were 14700 tons and 14500 tons respectively, with a month on month decrease of 14.85% and 12.41% respectively. In the fourth quarter, the selling price of crude benzene was 4961.33 yuan / ton, down 7.41% month on month.
Methanol: the price increased significantly month on month. According to the announcement, methanol production and sales in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 27000 tons and 14400 tons respectively, with a month on month decrease of 2.67% and 12.64% respectively. The selling price of methanol was 2473.05 yuan / ton, an increase of 21.12% month on month.
LNG: the price is stronger month on month. According to the announcement, the LNG production and sales in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 17600 tons and 18800 tons respectively, with a month on month decrease of 45.94% and 40.71% respectively. The selling price of LNG was 5117.27 yuan / ton, an increase of 14.85% month on month.
Synthetic ammonia: the price is basically flat month on month. According to the announcement, the production and sales of synthetic ammonia in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 33200 tons and 31100 tons respectively, with a month on month decrease of 42.52% and 45.74% respectively. The selling price of a single ton was 3197.68 yuan, a month on month decrease of 0.67%.
BDO: price month on month growth. According to the announcement, the production and sales of BDO in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 12100 tons and 11500 tons respectively, with a month on month decrease of 10.05% and 20.57% respectively. The comprehensive selling price of BDO was 26747.15 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 21.14%.
Clean coal: prices rose month on month. According to the announcement of the company on November 18, 2021, the company acquired Zhangye Hongneng coal industry, a subsidiary of the major shareholder. The main assets are 900000 T / a huacaotan coal mine, the main coal type is 1 / 3 coking coal, and the production capacity of the mine is planned to increase by 600000 t / A to 1.5 million T / A. After the completion of the mine acquisition, the company’s raw coal supply is more guaranteed. According to the announcement, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company produced 160700 tons of clean coal, sold 159300 tons of clean coal, and the sales price was 1563.76 yuan / ton, up 7.44% month on month.
Cost: the purchase price of clean coal decreased slightly. In terms of cost, the company’s purchase price of clean coal in the fourth quarter was 2117.75 yuan / ton, down 2.44% from the third quarter.
Inner Mongolia black cat project is expected to contribute to the output increment. According to the company’s announcement on July 26, 2021, the Company repurchased 17.32% equity of Inner Mongolia black cat held by the rescue fund in advance, and the shareholding ratio of Inner Mongolia black cat was restored to 100%. In the first half of the year, Inner Mongolia black cat project produced 496800 tons of coke and realized a net profit of 27.31 million yuan. By the first half of 2021, the company has coke production capacity of 7.8 million tons / year, methanol production capacity of 300000 tons / year, synthetic ammonia production capacity of 370000 tons / year, LNG production capacity of 250000 tons / year and 60000 tons / year BDO production capacity. The coke production capacity has ranked among the top in China.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.575 billion, RMB 1.428 billion and RMB 1.629 billion respectively. Based on the closing price on January 13, 2022, the corresponding PE will be 9x, 10x and 8x respectively. It will be covered for the first time and the company will be rated as “prudent recommendation”.
Risk warning: the price of main products decreases; Safety production risk; The commissioning progress of the new project is less than expected.
