Key investment points:
The performance of 22q1 in the pharmaceutical secondary market is under pressure, and CXO is still a public offering heavy position sector. 1) Pharmaceutical market value: as of March 31, 2022, the total market value of A-share pharmaceutical companies was 7.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 8.6% of the total market value of A-share, and the market value of the sector decreased by 0.1pct quarter on quarter compared with 21q4. 2) Heavy pharmaceutical positions of public funds: the total market value of the heavy pharmaceutical positions of public funds in 2022q1 is 373.87 billion yuan, accounting for 11.6% of the market value of all heavy positions of public funds, an increase of 0.8pct compared with 21q4. From the sectors of heavy positions, CXO accounts for 5 of the top 10 heavy positions, with a total of more than 131.5 billion, accounting for about 35% of the heavy positions of medicine.
Macro data of the pharmaceutical industry: the epidemic had an impact on the industry in early 22. In 2021, the cumulative income of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) manufacturing industry reached 2928.8 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1% year-on-year and 22.5% over the same period in 2019; The cumulative profit of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was 627.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.9%, an increase of 101.0% over the same period in 2019. In 2022q1 China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) manufacturing, the cumulative revenue reached 693.7 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year; The cumulative profit of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was 106.6 billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year.
Each sub sector: CXO, vaccine, upstream industrial chain and medical devices performed well
1) CXO: the prosperity of the sector remains the same, and the investment cost performance is outstanding. In 2021, the revenue is + 43.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is + 62.3%; 22q1 revenue + 72.4%, net profit attributable to parent company + 36.1%.
2) chemical APIs: the performance is differentiated, which is expected to be beneficial to the oral covid-19 small molecule industry chain. In 2021, the revenue is + 14.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is – 9.9%; 22q1 revenue + 12.8%, net profit attributable to parent company + 5.9%.
3) chemical agents: the impact of centralized mining is fully released, and the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the preparation sector. In 2021, the revenue is + 10.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is + 68.5%; 22q1 revenue + 2.8%, net profit attributable to parent company – 23.3%.
4) upstream industrial chain: under the domestic substitution logic, the performance is beautiful. Pharmaceutical upstream: 2021 revenue + 47.2%, net profit attributable to parent company + 105.7%; 22q1 revenue + 41.6%, net profit attributable to parent company + 65.6%. Scientific research services: 2021 revenue + 17.6%, net profit attributable to parent company – 13.9%; 22q1 revenue + 22.9%, net profit attributable to parent company – 10.1%.
The net profit of the medical service sector was – 27.5% in 2021, with a serious impact on the performance of the parent sector; 22q1 revenue + 33.0%, net profit attributable to parent company + 77.8%.
6) biological products: the industry still maintains a high boom, with revenue of + 41.0% and net profit attributable to parent company of + 75.8% in 2021; 22q1 revenue + 49.8%, net profit attributable to parent company + 63.5%; Vaccine: 2021 revenue + 80.2%, net profit attributable to parent + 129.1; 22q1 revenue + 109.4%, net profit attributable to parent company + 131.7%. Blood products: 2021 revenue + 17.0%, net profit attributable to parent company + 2.0%; 22q1 revenue + 28.2%, net profit attributable to parent company + 12.5%.
7) medical devices: the orders for antigen detection are huge, and the device sector has recovered rapid growth as a whole. In 2021, the revenue is + 19.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is + 17.4%; 22q1 revenue + 53.8%, net profit attributable to parent company + 69.9%. Medical equipment: 2021 revenue + 10.5%, net profit attributable to parent company + 9.1%; 22q1 revenue + 7.0%, net profit attributable to parent company – 6.6%. Medical consumables: 2021 revenue + 11.2%, net profit attributable to parent company – 2.8%; 22q1 revenue – 25.8%, net profit attributable to parent company – 66.6%. IVD: 2021 revenue + 35.2%, net profit attributable to parent company + 46.7%; 22q1 revenue + 179.7%, net profit attributable to parent company + 278.6%.
8) pharmaceutical business: the performance of circulation enterprises grew steadily, and retail pharmacies were greatly affected by the epidemic. Pharmaceutical wholesale: 2021 revenue + 10.9%, net profit attributable to parent company + 22.3%; 22q1 revenue + 5.6%, net profit attributable to parent company – 24.9%. Retail pharmacies: 2021 revenue + 14.3%, net profit attributable to parent company – 1.1%; 22q1 revenue + 16.9%, net profit attributable to parent company – 1.7%.
9) traditional Chinese medicine: the industry has ushered in a historic turning point of development, with revenue of + 8.3% and net profit attributable to the parent company of + 8.7% in 2021; 22q1 revenue + 0.7%, net profit attributable to parent company – 1.2%.
Risk tip: the implementation scope of centralized purchase is further expanded, the competition pattern is at risk of deterioration, and the overall growth rate of the industry is lower than expected.
