\u3000\u3000 Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) (605006)
The company issued 21fy performance forecast. During the reporting period, the company’s revenue is expected to be 2.53-2.97 billion, yoy + 27% ~ 49%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 510-600 million, yoy + 195% ~ 246%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 490-580 million, yoy + 206% ~ 259%. We estimate that the median income of 21q4 company is 690 million, QoQ + 13%; The median net profit attributable to the parent company is 103 million, qoq-14%; The median net profit deducted from non parent company is 93 million, qoq-22%. Under the background of the rise in the price of 21q4 glass fiber raw fuel and the rise in the average price of coal, we believe that the performance of 21q4 company basically meets the market expectations.
There are many non ring buckles in 21q4, mainly due to the month on month increase of raw fuel cost
In 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased significantly. We think it mainly reflects two factors that the market expectation is relatively sufficient: 1) the Q4 average cost of natural gas and other raw fuels increased to a certain extent; 2) The rise in coal prices may further affect the profitability of the company’s thermal power plant. We expect that the production and sales of glass fiber yarn of 21q4 company will be roughly stable month on month (it is expected that Yishui line 3 ignited in late 21 / 10 will contribute effective output in 22q1, and the production capacity will be increased from 60000 tons to 100000 tons through technical transformation). In addition, we expect that the average sales price of the product is also roughly flat month on month (according to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of 21q4 roving ton is 6111 yuan, QoQ + 178 yuan / + 3.0%, which is roughly the same as the latest price of 6075 yuan).
There are two expected differences
We believe that there are two expectations gaps in the market at this stage: I) the market still looks at the glass fiber industry from a cyclical perspective. In fact, the glass fiber industry is undergoing profound changes, including the disturbance of new supply policies, the increase of new entry threshold (the supply pattern tends to be stable, and the unit investment intensity 21fy has increased to a certain extent), the orderly expansion of production capacity guided by the association, etc, The new supply elasticity of glass fiber may converge to a certain extent compared with the 13th five year plan; On the other hand, the demand growth is still worth looking forward to (22 years of focus on export increment, wind power, automobile, etc.; the logic of long-term multi field penetration improvement remains); The industry cycle attribute may be significantly weakened. II) there is still a big gap between the company’s capacity scale and the industry leader. It is expected that the capacity scale will continue to grow rapidly through the technical transformation of the existing production line (such as the technical transformation of Yishui line 3 recently completed by the company); On the other hand, the company has better space to tap the potential of cost and improve the corresponding net profit per ton, and the overall growth of the company may have advantages over industry leaders.
Slightly lowered the company’s profit forecast and maintained the “buy” rating
Considering the cost changes and other factors, we slightly lowered the company’s profit forecast for 21-23 years. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be 550 / 750 / 840 million (the previous value was 600 / 7.5 / 870 million), yoy + 219% / 36% / 12%. The industry cycle attribute tends to weaken, and the growth elasticity of the company deserves attention. We recognize that the company will be given 15 times PE for 22 years, raise the company’s target price to 22.54 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the demand is lower than expected, the industry supply increment is higher than expected, and the rhythm of the company’s new production capacity is lower than expected; The forecast data are the preliminary calculation results, and the specific data are subject to the annual report of 2021.
