Investment advice
The local epidemic repeatedly affects the retail of gold and jewelry terminals. With the advent of the peak season in May and beautiful sales in some regions, it is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: 1) beautiful sales during the May Day holiday and the impact of the epidemic gradually diminishes, such as Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) ; 2) The impact of the epidemic is relatively small, and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) , which are expected to benefit from the rise of gold price (high proportion of gram weight gold); 3) Chow Tai Fook, which is dragged down by the epidemic in the short term and has many valuation adjustments, but has excellent quality and strong product / channel capacity in the long term, and is expected to continue to benefit from the improvement of industry concentration.
Recently, we have organized a series of surveys to track the jewelry sales in the peak season of May Day. The feedback is as follows:
Southwest region:
May day travel recovery, wedding and other just need to be released. By product, mosaic sales are beautiful and the growth rate is higher than that of plain gold, accounting for a larger proportion of store sales than that of the Spring Festival; Over the past 22 years, gold price rise + buy it now price to gram weight + Gufa gold has driven the growth of gold jewelry sales. The sales of refined large gram weight products such as Gufa gold bracelets are better than small traditional gold jewelry, which is good for the local head gold brand. The sales growth of stores in provincial capital / prefecture and county-level cities is mainly related to regional consumption habits and business district passenger flow. The conversion rate, repurchase rate and customer unit price of some new and old stores increased. May is the peak season for jewelry sales, which is mainly driven by May Day + mother's day + 520. The absolute value of sales is the same as that of Spring Festival + Valentine's day. With the recovery of the epidemic, it is optimistic that mother's day + 520 will continue to flourish.
3.8 some epidemic relief areas have beautiful sales, mainly contributed by local passenger flow. Early March usually accounts for a high proportion of sales in March. From late March to April, affected by the epidemic in some areas, the overall number of single stores declined.
Dealers in Central China: the epidemic situation occurred in some regions in March and April. The layout of some brand advantage regions was different, and the growth rate fluctuated and performance differentiated due to different degrees of impact of the epidemic. The May day increased by a single digit year-on-year. Ordering in Shenzhen will be affected by the epidemic in spring. Some brands will give support by issuing coupons for online ordering and supporting franchisees to carry out e-commerce sales. The development of online channels can make up for offline channels. The head brand expansion plan continues to be promoted, the head concentration trend continues, and franchisees have strong willingness to open stores.
Market Review
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.11%, and the diamond and jewelry sector fell 2.35%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) pct. In terms of sector comparison, diamond jewelry is located in the downstream of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) led the increase, and North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) , Mclon Jewellery Co.Ltd(300945) led the decrease.
Industry dynamics
Industry news: 1) China: the total retail sales of 1q22 gold, silver and jewelry increased by 7.6% at the same time;; Tapestry China tourism retail headquarters landed in Hainan free trade port; Zhou Dachun donated RMB 120 million to cultivate the champion. 2) Abroad: Cartier plans to adjust the price between 3% and 5%; As of the fiscal year of 22.3.1, India's jewelry exports increased by 54% to US $39.15 billion; GIA launches diamond country of origin verification service; The turnover of transatlantic rough diamond bidding meeting fell; Sequoia China leads the investment in French fashion and accessories brand destree.
Key Announcements: 1) Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co.Ltd(605599) 21 annual revenue of 10.4 billion yuan, + 47%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 360 million yuan, - 0.6%; Deduct non RMB 350 million, + 4%; 1q22 revenue of 3.5 billion yuan, + 18%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 180 million yuan, + 71%; Deduct non RMB 170 million, + 44%. 2) Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) 1q22 revenue of 190 million yuan, + 127%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 100 million yuan, + 148%; Deduct non 100 million yuan, + 147%. 3) Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) 1q22 revenue of RMB 12.24 billion, + 12%; Net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 330 million, - 42%; Deduct non RMB 270 million, - 47%. 4) Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools Co.Ltd(688028) 1q22 Revenue: RMB 70 million, - 1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 07 million yuan, - 56%. 5) Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) non public offering restricted shares are listed and circulated, accounting for 13.04% of the total shares of the company.
Risk tips
Terminal retail is less than expected; The expansion of franchise channels is less than expected; The epidemic situation is repeated.
