Core view
\u3000\u30001. The installed capacity of power batteries has increased, and new energy metal enterprises welcome good opportunities for configuration. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery reached 51.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 120.7%, and the loading scale of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery showed a continuous upward trend. On the other hand, with the rapid development of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry, the market share of Chinese enterprises has further improved. In the first quarter of 2022, the market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and other Chinese enterprises was about 55.7%, a large increase over last year. The prosperity of the new energy industry is high, and the performance of upstream related metal enterprises is more excellent. In the first quarter of 2022, Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) four enterprises realized net profit attributable to parent company of 1.07 billion yuan, 3.53 billion yuan, 3.33 billion yuan and 770 million yuan respectively, all of which increased several times over the same period of last year. It is expected that the performance of relevant enterprises in the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) metal industry is expected to maintain a stable and rapid growth trend in the future when the global and China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile volume continues to increase and the market share of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises continues to increase. The valuation of new energy metal enterprises is subject to adjustment, and the industry has entered a good opportunity for allocation. Since 2022, with the scattered and repeated outbreaks in China and the continuous disturbance of foreign geopolitical situation, the volatility of the Chinese market has increased significantly. Affected by the overall impact of the Chinese market, the upstream metal sector market of new energy shows a certain weakening trend. As of April 29, 2022, the P / E ratios of Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) enterprises have decreased by 16.3%, 18.2% and 24.1% respectively. Under the background of the current decline in industry valuation, the gradual release of market risks and the continuous high growth expectation of the industry, the configuration value of the new energy metal industry is constantly highlighting.
\u3000\u30002. Among the main non-ferrous metals, neodymium oxide rose by 2.8% and the price of zinc decreased. In terms of neodymium oxide, as of April 29, 2022, neodymium oxide reported 910000 yuan / ton, up 2.8% weekly. The main reason for the rise of neodymium oxide price is that the price of rare earth generally fell in the early stage and rebounded recently due to the impact of price oversold; In terms of zinc, as of April 29, 2022, the market price of SHFE zinc in China was reported to be 28000 yuan / ton, down 2.6% this week. China’s zinc price fell mainly because the current resumption of work and production in some parts of China needs to be further improved, and the demand momentum of downstream industries is relatively flat.
\u3000\u30003. The panic index continues to rise, and the safe haven value of gold will gradually highlight. Recently, the volatility of the U.S. market is gradually increasing. As of May 2, 2022, the U.S. standard & Poor’s 500 volatility index (VIX Index) has reached 32.34, close to the highest level this year. We believe that at the moment when the fluctuation level of the US stock market is rising, the allocation value of gold is gradually highlighting. On the one hand, looking back on history, gold performed better in the highly volatile market environment, and the correlation coefficient between the average annual VIX Index and the annual increase of gold was as high as 0.76. On the other hand, the current gold price has fallen, and the allocation value has increased significantly. As of May and February 2022, the closing price of Comex gold futures was US $1860.2/oz, down about 3.3% from the same period in April.
\u3000\u30004. Market review. From the perspective of subdivided areas, the non-ferrous metal sub sector fluctuated. The top three sectors were lithium, nickel cobalt tin antimony, rare earth and magnetic materials, with increases of 12.5%, 7.0% and 1.3% respectively. The top three weekly increases were Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , with weekly increases of 16.5%, 16.4% and 14.9% respectively; The top three weekly declines were Hootech Inc(301026) , Dongguan Eontec Co.Ltd(300328) , Yunnan Luoping Zinc&Electricity Co.Ltd(002114) , with weekly declines of 22.1%, 20.9% and 19.8% respectively.
Investment advice
The loading volume of power batteries continues to increase, and relevant production enterprises in the new energy metal industry may benefit, such as Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , etc.
Risk tips
The risk of the epidemic has intensified, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated sharply, and the demand for cars is lower than expected.
