The performance of 2021a has maintained rapid growth, and the valuation of the pharmaceutical industry has been at a historically low level.
(1) performance: the overall revenue of 21a pharmaceutical sector increased by 13.71% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 20.80% year-on-year, and the net profit deducting non net profit increased by 24.68% year-on-year; 22q1 single quarter revenue increased by 11.36% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent increased by 15.05% year-on-year, and net profit deducted increased by 25.20% year-on-year. The performance growth of 21a industry is expected to mainly benefit from the low base of 20a and the rebound of medical consumption demand due to the impact of the epidemic to a certain extent.
(2) valuation: the valuation of the pharmaceutical industry has been at a historically low level. In 2020, affected by covid-19 epidemic and other factors, the pharmaceutical industry increased significantly; In 2021, the epidemic situation in China was generally under control. Due to the influence of factors such as the gradual spread of national centralized drug and machinery mining, the pharmaceutical industry index showed a correction. From the historical data, the current industry valuation has been at a low level. As of April 30, 2022, the P / E ratio of the pharmaceutical industry is 25.64 times.
(3) fund position: the pharmaceutical position of public funds is still relatively low in history. In 2022q1, the position ratio of the whole market pharmaceutical fund was 11.02%, up 0.2pp month on month; Excluding the pharmaceutical theme fund, the position ratio was 7.97%, up 0.4pp month on month; Over the same period, pharmaceutical stocks accounted for 8.60% of the total market value of a shares, down 0.1pp month on month.
Chemical agents: the revenue of 21a chemical agents sector increased by 6.03% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 20.00% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non net profit increased by 14.64% year-on-year. In 2021, as the negative impact of the epidemic gradually subsided, the number of outpatients and inpatients in the hospital gradually recovered, and the performance showed a certain restorative growth in 2021. The revenue of 22q1 chemical agents decreased by 0.41% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 5.43% year-on-year, and the deduction of non net profit increased by 2.08% year-on-year. It is expected that the overall performance of 22q1 chemical sector will decline due to the impact of many factors, such as the negotiation price reduction of innovative drug health insurance, the price reduction of generic drug with volume procurement, and the rise of costs.
Chemical raw materials: the revenue of 21a chemical raw materials segment increased by 8.53% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 22.59% year-on-year, and the net profit after deduction decreased by 26.21% year-on-year. It is expected that the profits of Listed Companies in the chemical API sector will decline in 2021 due to the rise in the price of raw materials, exchange rate fluctuations and depreciation after the launch of new production capacity. The revenue of 22q1 chemical API segment increased by 10.33% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 9.35% year-on-year, and the net profit after deduction increased by 11.08% year-on-year. Thanks to the gradual price increase under the transmission of API cost and the rapid volume of cdmo business, the performance of Listed Companies in 2022q1 chemical API sector has entered a recovery cycle.
Biological products: the revenue of 21a biological products sector increased by 39.22% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 65.08% year-on-year, and the net profit deducting non net profit increased by 88.23% year-on-year. In 2021, the biological products sector showed a high-speed growth trend as a whole, which is expected to be mainly due to 1) the performance in 2020 is affected by covid-19 epidemic, and the overall base is low; 2) Covid-19 vaccination nationwide has basically achieved universal coverage, making a great contribution to the performance of the vaccine sector; 3) In 2021, as the impact of the epidemic in China basically subsided, the volume of other biological products (biological similar drugs, biological innovative drugs, other vaccines, blood products, etc.) recovered or even exceeded the normal level in previous years. The revenue of 22q1 biological products sector increased by 37.74% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 42.00% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non net profit increased by 34.30% year-on-year. 22q1 biological products sector continues to maintain a high-speed growth trend, which is expected to be affected by the continuous volume of covid-19 vaccine booster vaccination, biological similar drugs, biological innovative drugs, other vaccines, blood products, etc.
Medical services: the revenue of 21a medical services sector increased by 32.70% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 29.61% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted increased by 51.29% year-on-year. Since 2021, China’s covid-19 epidemic control has been relatively stable, the private medical service industry has ushered in a restorative rebound, and the whole medical service sector has maintained a high outlook as a whole. The revenue of 22q1 medical service sector increased by 36.86% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 6.36% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent increased by 50.29% year-on-year. Since 2022, the epidemic situation has rebounded in many places across the country, especially in Hong Kong, Jilin, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other regions, with large-scale concentrated outbreaks, and phased suspension or flow restriction in private hospitals, which has a certain impact on the performance of private medical service sector.
Medical devices: the revenue of 21a medical device segment increased by 22.85% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 25.17% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non net profit increased by 25.21% year-on-year. In 2021, the fundamentals of the medical device industry were stable, with restorative growth after the outbreak in the subdivided fields such as medical equipment, high-value consumables and conventional IVD. The revenue of 22q1 medical device segment increased by 38.84% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 46.49% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non net profit increased by 52.63% year-on-year. Due to the substantial growth of performance of some covid-19 testing companies in the first quarter, if several companies with large profit volume ( Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , etc.) are excluded, the revenue of 2022q1 instrument sector will increase by 18.5%; Deduction of non net profit increased by 18.6%. In the follow-up, when the epidemic situation in China gradually subsides, the performance of traditional equipment companies is expected to achieve restorative growth.
Pharmaceutical business: the revenue of 21a pharmaceutical business sector increased by 11.77% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 1.86% year-on-year, and the deduction of non net profit increased by 0.33% year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, 2021q1 and 2021q2 showed a restorative rebound due to the low base in the same period, and 2021q3 and 2021q4 showed a slow year-on-year growth due to the high base in the same period. Since the covid-19 epidemic, medical terminals and retail pharmacies have been restricted to varying degrees, and the regular growth of the whole pharmaceutical circulation sector has been negatively affected. The revenue of 22q1 pharmaceutical commercial sector increased by 7.64% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 17.86% year-on-year, and the deduction of non net profit increased by 6.05% year-on-year. Since 2022, covid-19 epidemic has spread in many places across the country. Cold, antipyretic, anti-inflammatory and other drugs have been strictly controlled at retail terminals, which has a great impact on the performance of pharmaceutical commercial companies. We believe that since the covid-19 epidemic, the operation of regional pharmaceutical commercial companies has become more difficult. Leading companies are expected to continue to expand their territory through acquisition and M & A, realize counter cyclical growth, and improve the industry concentration is the general trend.
Traditional Chinese medicine: the revenue of 21a traditional Chinese medicine sector increased by 9.32% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 9.72% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted increased by 12.84% year-on-year. The negative impact of covid-19 epidemic and policy restrictions on the traditional Chinese medicine industry has hit the bottom stage, and various performance indicators of the traditional Chinese medicine sector have rebounded. From the long-term development point of view, the inflection point of the whole industry has reached. The revenue of 22q1 traditional Chinese medicine sector increased by 2.30% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 0.90% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted increased by 5.22% year-on-year. Since 2022, covid-19 epidemic has spread in many places across the country. All localities have strengthened the prevention and control of covid-19 epidemic, which has an impact on the short-term performance of the traditional Chinese medicine industry: from the perspective of medical terminals, the admission promotion of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises has been limited, especially the clinical promotion of new traditional Chinese medicine has been greatly affected. From the perspective of retail terminals, local pharmacies have different degrees of flow restrictions, and the mobile marketing of terminals cannot be carried out.
Risk tip: there is uncertainty in the global covid-19 epidemic, the speed of product development and approval is lower than expected, and there are quality problems in drugs and medical services.
