Crude oil: oil prices rose slightly this week and are expected to remain high in the short term. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues this week. The market is worried that the EU may sanction Russian oil, and international oil prices rose slightly. As of April 29, Brent and WTI oil prices reached $109.34/barrel and $104.69/barrel respectively, up 2.52% and 2.57% respectively from last week. Since the beginning of the year, Brent and WTI oil prices have increased by about 40%. The variables affecting oil prices in the future are still concentrated on the supply side. We judge that oil prices will remain high and volatile in the short term.
Inventory conversion: this week’s crude oil and propane have a positive return, which has been positive since the beginning of the year. According to the model we built, the average profit and loss of this week’s crude oil inventory conversion is 354 yuan / ton, and 323 yuan / ton since the beginning of the year; The average profit and loss of propane inventory conversion this week is 87 yuan / ton, and 326 yuan / ton since the beginning of the year.
Price rise and fall: the market is relatively stable this week, and the price is still at a medium high level. Among the 182 products we focus on tracking, a total of 39 products have increased compared with last week, accounting for about 21%; The prices of 34% of products were flat and 44% of products fell. On the whole, the market performance is relatively stable, and there is no sharp rise or fall, but the price is still in the middle and high range. Products with large price increases this week include liquid chlorine, fuel oil, ammonium sulfate, asphalt, naphthalene, coal tar, urea, liquid ammonia, ethyl acrylate, benzene, etc.
Price difference rise and fall: urea, chlor alkali and EVA continue to perform well, but the overall performance is poor. Among the 140 product price differences we focus on tracking, a total of 58 price differences have increased and 78 price differences have decreased compared with last week, resulting in poor overall performance. The price difference of monoammonium phosphate (phosphate rock), PTA (p-xylene), diamine phosphate (phosphate rock), viscose staple fiber (cotton staple), polypropylene (methanol), LLDPE (methanol), polyester staple fiber (PX) and PBT (PTA) increased significantly this week, mainly due to the low base, and its profitability is at the bottom of history; However, there are structural market conditions in the industry, such as urea price difference (coal head), PVC price difference (calcium carbide), caustic soda price difference (salt), EVA price difference (methanol) and so on.
The profit of 22q1 reached a record high. In terms of the cost of sectorau materials, the structural opportunity returned to the parent company in 22q1, with a net profit of 70.7 billion yuan, an increase of 39.61% year-on-year. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin, net profit margin and return on net assets continue to maintain a historical high, second only to 21q2. Among the 33 sub industries, the proportion of year-on-year increase and decrease in the net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 accounted for 50% respectively. The sub sectors such as fluorine chemical industry, chemical fertilizer, soda ash and pesticide made good profits. Structural investment opportunities were seen throughout the year.
Investment suggestions 1) we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of chlor alkali industry under the high oil price and tight supply and demand of calcium carbide, as well as the soda ash industry under the background of good supply and demand. We mainly recommend Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) ( Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) . SZ), Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) ( Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) . SH), Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ( Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) . SZ), Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) ( Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) . SH), etc. 2) We are optimistic about the enterprises with mineral resources, the raw material end is basically not disturbed by the cost, and the product end price is at the middle and high level. We recommend Guanghui energy ( Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) . SH), Salt Lake Co., Ltd. ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) . SZ), etc. 3) We are optimistic about the growth performance of leading enterprises with increased performance due to large-scale expansion, and recommend satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) . SZ), Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ( Shanghai Sanmao Enterprise (Group) Co.Ltd(600689) . SH), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), etc.
The risk indicates the risk that the production and marketing or demand of the product is less than expected, and the risk that the project reaches the production capacity is less than expected, etc.
