\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (300769)
Event overview. On January 11, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast. In 2021, it is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 760-830 million and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 730-800 million after deduction, both of which have turned losses into profits year-on-year. The new capacity of the company is released, and the production and sales volume has increased significantly compared with 2020; The rise in the price of upstream raw materials and the tight supply and demand in the lithium iron phosphate market have driven the rise in the price of the company’s products; At the same time, thanks to the effective promotion of the company’s cost control and the emergence of economies of scale, the company’s profitability has been greatly improved compared with 20 years.
21q4 shipment and ton net profit performance were excellent. According to the median forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 574 million yuan, an increase of 3236.1% and 426.5% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 521 million yuan, an increase of 2709.5% and 392.5% respectively. We expect the company to ship about 35000 tons in 21q4, and the corresponding net profit per ton is about 16000 / ton. Net profit per ton increased significantly month on month. In addition to the dilution of the cost of fixed assets caused by the company’s full production and full sales, it also benefited from the sharp rise in the price of raw material inventory, which is expected to affect about 7000 yuan / ton.
LFP went global, the iron lithium leader continued to expand production, and the net profit per ton increased month on month. LFP China’s monthly installed capacity has exceeded three yuan, and the route has been recognized by Tesla, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, LG and other overseas OEMs and battery manufacturers. It is widely used in the field of energy storage, and will achieve a growth rate exceeding the industry average in the future. The company has rapidly expanded its production. We expect the company’s effective equity production capacity to reach 187000 tons in 22 years, and the total production capacity will reach 300000-330000 tons by the end of the year; The total production capacity is expected to reach 400000 tons by the end of the year. The company focuses on high-quality customers, with Cr5 of 21h1 reaching 90%. The main customers include catl, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , of which catl accounts for 50% of the company’s shipments. The rapid growth of main customers has led to the year-on-year improvement of the company’s capacity utilization.
The company has established technical barriers in liquid phase method, lfmp and positive lithium supplement. The company adopts liquid phase method to prepare LFP, which has cost and technical advantages. The company took the lead in realizing the industrialization of new lithium salt by investing in the construction of 330000 tons of lithium iron manganese phosphate; At the same time, 3.5 billion yuan was invested to build a lithium supplement with an annual output of 25000 tons. Lfmp plus positive lithium supplement can improve the first effect, cycle times and energy density by 10-20% on the premise that the cost of single GWH is basically unchanged. The company is expected to establish barriers in the Red Sea LFP field through leading technical capabilities.
Investment suggestion: considering that the company’s Q4 volume has increased simultaneously and has the advantages of technology and capacity, we raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 802, 1180 and 1705 million yuan (previously 400, 776 and 1191 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 2925.5%, 47% and 45% respectively. The current share price corresponds to 58, 40 and 27 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. With reference to the current pe-ttm102 times of CS new energy vehicle index (consistent profit expectation of wind), considering that the company is the leader of LFP positive pole, maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the global demand for new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Capacity expansion is slower than expected; The progress of capacity expansion is less than expected; The progress of new technology development is less than expected.
