\u3000\u3000 Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816)
Event: the company issued the announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 1.65 billion yuan to 1.73 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 805 million yuan to 885 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 95% to 105%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit will reach 1.42 billion yuan to 1.500 billion yuan, an increase of 829 million yuan to 909 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 140% to 154%.
Comments:
The performance growth continued to grow beautifully, and the annual business performance was in line with expectations. On the whole, the company’s product strength, brand strength and channel strength were effectively highlighted during the year, and the provision for goodwill impairment in 2020 resulted in a low performance base in the same period last year, resulting in a beautiful growth rate of the company’s annual performance and operating performance in line with market expectations. From the perspective of single quarter, the company’s Q4 single quarter net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 412 million yuan to 492 million yuan, up from – 164 million yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 168.82% ~ 201.60% over 244 million yuan in the same period in 2019; In a single quarter, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit of 307 million yuan to 387 million yuan, which was – 239 million yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 125.80% ~ 158.58% over 184 million yuan in the same period in 2019.
Channel products work together, and the industrial chain and capacity layout are becoming more and more perfect. (1) Channel side: the number of channels is leading, the operation capacity is flexible, and the information construction of regional retail centers and stores provides sufficient momentum for the company’s store efficiency growth; (2) Product and brand side: multi category layout and good product echelon, the company’s big home strategy is advanced, the industry is leading, the volume and price rise together, and the growth trend is expected to continue; (3) Industrial chain and capacity layout: the company has a vertical layout of the whole industrial chain, invested 2.496 billion yuan to build Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) new 1 million sets of software home and supporting industrial projects, improved production and manufacturing efficiency, reduced cost and increased efficiency. Horizontal global capacity construction, Chinese capacity radiates East China, central China, North China and southwest China, and overseas capacity is distributed in Vietnam and Mexico, helping the company improve delivery efficiency and rapidly expand market share.
Investment suggestion: steady performance growth, prominent valuation and cost performance, and maintain the “buy” rating. The company’s performance continues to grow beautifully, corresponding to only about 22 times of PE in 2022. The valuation performance price ratio is prominent, and the valuation repair can be expected under the background of the gradual emergence of the underlying intention of real estate policy. At the same time, the company has a leading channel sinking layout and has a cost-effective brand Tianxi school. Driven by the furniture to the countryside policy, it may bring new revenue increment to the company. We maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.686/2.106/2.576 billion respectively, corresponding to the current market value PE of 27 / 22 / 18x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the cost of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the real estate market fluctuates, and the channel development is less than expected.
