\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 244 Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) )
Key investment points
The growth rate of revenue and profit exceeded 30%, and the sold and outstanding are sufficient
Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) disclosed the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the annual revenue was 37.976 billion (YoY + 32.8%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.027 billion (YoY + 30.1%), and the gross profit margin was 24.8% (yoy-2.2pct). In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 6.183 billion (yoy-16.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 230 million (yoy-42.7%)
The company delivered 21 projects in 2021, driving the steady growth of revenue. Although the gross profit margin was slightly affected by the industry, due to good cost control, the company’s expense rate decreased by 0.73pct to 5.3%; Superimposed taxes and surcharges decreased by 28.4% year-on-year, jointly driving high profits. In 2022, the company plans to deliver 35 projects, with a total capacity of 4.1487 million square meters (YoY + 45.2%); The outstanding amount sold was 93.54 billion (YoY + 28.5%), covering 2.5 times of the revenue in 2021. Despite the decline in revenue in the first quarter due to the delivery rhythm, the annual performance is still guaranteed.
Exceeded the annual sales target, ranking first in Hangzhou
In 2021, the company achieved sales of 169.1 billion (YoY + 24%), exceeding the annual target. Ranked first in Hangzhou; The national Kerry ranking ranked 22nd, five places ahead of the same period last year.
According to the sales data of Kerui top 100, the company achieved sales of 25 billion (yoy-47%) in the first quarter of 2022. However, on a month on month basis, under the background of sluggish industry sales, the company’s sales in March and April increased continuously, reflecting strong brand strength and promotion ability.
Counter trend to supplement high-quality soil storage and continue deep cultivation in Zhejiang Province
In 2021, the company added 38 projects, including 35 in Zhejiang Province. The cumulative building area of newly added soil storage capacity is 4.694 million m2 (YoY + 8.6%), the land acquisition amount is 71 billion (yoy-9.2%), the average floor price is 15126 yuan / m2 (yoy-16.4%), and the land cost is reduced. The value of goods and land increased by 56.6% year-on-year.
By the end of 2021, the total construction area of the company’s land reserve was 15.051 million square meters (YoY + 19.5%), of which non Hangzhou cities in Hangzhou and Zhejiang Province and outside the province accounted for 60%, 25% and 15% respectively. The sales market in Zhejiang Province, especially in Hangzhou, is relatively prosperous, and the excellent soil storage structure lays the foundation for the company’s sustainable development in the future.
The three red lines remain at the green level, and the financing cost has been continuously reduced
The debt structure of the company is reasonable and clear. Among the interest bearing liabilities, bank loans account for 73.8% and direct financing accounts for 26.2%. After elimination, the asset liability ratio was 65.92%, the net debt ratio was 65.97%, and the cash short debt ratio was 1.51 times, maintaining the green level. In addition, the company’s comprehensive financing cost continues to decline, with an average financing cost of 4.9% (yoy-0.3pct) in 2021.
Thanks to its stable business style, the company has abundant credit reserves. In terms of loans, bank credit lines of 83.243 billion (YoY + 16%) were obtained in 2021, of which 57% were unused; In terms of direct financing, the approved unissued corporate bonds, short-term financing and ultra short-term integration amount to 3.21 billion, and the good liquidity provides a guarantee for the company to choose the opportunity to thicken the high-quality soil storage.
Investment suggestion: as a regional leading company deeply engaged in Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) has strong land acquisition and supply capacity; In addition, under the background of strict price limit, it has strong ability to de sell and can realize a virtuous circle.
Based on the company’s project carry forward rhythm, we adjust the company’s profit forecast. We expect that from 2022 to 2024, the company will realize operating revenues of 49.2 billion, 63.2 billion and 79.8 billion (54.2 billion and 67.2 billion before 2022 and 2023), with a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, 28.5% and 26.1%, and realize net profits attributable to the parent company of 3.5 billion, 4.4 billion and 5.5 billion (3.3 billion and 4.1 billion before 2022 and 2023), with a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, 24.9% and 24.2% respectively. The current share price of the company corresponds to 8.6 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the tightening of financing environment exceeds expectations, the tightening of real estate regulation policies exceeds expectations, the double centralized transfer rules are further changed, and the quoted data lags behind or is not timely.
