\u3000\u3000 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600)
The company issued the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.15 billion in 2021, an increase of RMB 950 million over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of + 43.1%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.19 billion yuan, an increase of 380 million yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of + 20.9%.
Q4 off-season superimposed cost pressure led to pressure on the profit side, and the income from land collection and storage contributed to the performance. According to the company’s performance pre increase announcement, in the single quarter of 2021q4, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of – 460 million yuan, compared with – 780 million yuan in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, of which the government’s land expropriation compensation for yangjiaqun plot is expected to increase, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 440 million yuan. If the impact of land expropriation and collection is deducted, 2021q4 company will deduct a net profit not attributable to the parent company of – 1.02 billion yuan, The loss range is 160 million yuan higher than that of – 860 million yuan in 2020q4, with a year-on-year increase of – 18.4%. We expect that the loss range of Q4 in a single quarter is higher than that in the same period last year, mainly due to 1) the sales volume of Q4 at the revenue end may decline slightly due to factors such as epidemic and relatively weak consumption. Shaanxi is an important market of the company, Local repeated prediction of the epidemic has a certain impact on the company’s product sales and daily production and operation activities; 2) On the cost side, the pressure of rising raw material prices gradually appeared during the year, and the pressure of superimposed sales volume weakened the effect of diluting fixed costs. Due to the superposition of multiple factors, the operating profit is slightly lower than expected.
The off-season and epidemic disturbance will eventually pass, and grasp the main line of dynamic sales and industrial price increase in peak season. The short-term epidemic has had a certain impact on beer consumption, but in the long run, the impact of the epidemic on daily life shows a marginal weakening trend. The superposition of Q4 is the off-season of traditional consumption in the beer industry. We believe that the short-term disturbance will not change the long-term trend of the industry. Looking forward to 2022, from the perspective of price, under the opportunity that the rise of raw material prices gives birth to the industrial price increase window, driven by the stable competition pattern and the business orientation of seeking profits with high-end products, the price increase in the beer industry is expected to be smoothly transmitted to consumers. At the same time, the improvement of product structure is on the way, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) as an industry leader is expected to benefit significantly, As the cost side price gradually stabilizes or further releases the performance bomb. From the perspective of sales volume, under the optimistic assumption, if the food and beverage recovery in peak season and the impact of epidemic situation on the main market are weakened, the company is expected to usher in a simultaneous increase in volume and price. Under the neutral assumption, if the degree of food and beverage recovery and the disturbance frequency of epidemic situation are similar to those in 2021, the company is expected to show an increase in volume parity. At the same time, the personnel optimization brought by the company’s factory closure will continue to improve the operating efficiency, The company’s profitability will continue to improve.
Profit forecast: taking into account the impact of the company’s sales and land expropriation compensation on the performance, adjusting the previous profit forecast, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-23 will be RMB 3.15/43.3/4.48 billion respectively (originally RMB 2.91/43.1/4.5 billion), plus one-time impairment and equity incentive fees, and excluding the impact of land expropriation compensation of RMB 440/700 million in 2021 / 2022, The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 3.13/4.01/4.76 billion respectively, and the adjusted corresponding PE is 39 / 30 / 26 times
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the movable pin; The effect of product price increase is less than expected; The high-end process is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies.
