\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 658 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) )
Matters:
Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) released the first quarter report of 2022. In the first quarter, the company achieved an operating revenue of 85.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 24.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, with an annualized roe14.5% 82%, up 0.02pct year-on-year.
Ping An View:
The middle income grew strongly and the profit maintained rapid growth Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) in the first quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 17.8% year-on-year (vs.18.6%, 2021), which slowed down compared with 2021, but still maintained a high level in the industry. In the first quarter, the operating revenue increased by 10.1% (vs.11.4%, 2021) year-on-year, with a slight decrease, but still maintained a rapid level. Specifically, the rapid growth of medium revenue is an important factor to support the rapid growth of revenue. In the first quarter, the medium revenue increased by 39.6% (vs.33.4%, 2021) year-on-year, and the proportion of medium revenue in revenue increased by 2.25% to 10.67% year-on-year. In recent years, the wealth management sector of postal savings has grown rapidly. In the first quarter, the business income of agency insurance and financial management has achieved rapid growth. The scale of AUM exceeded 13 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 4% over the end of the previous year, and the number of wealth customers increased by 9.04% over the end of the previous year, continuing the strong growth trend of last year. Over the past three years, the average annual growth rate of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) medium income has reached 24%, especially the average growth rate of agency business income in recent three years has reached 65.5%, and the effectiveness of wealth management upgrading has been continuously reflected.
The interest rate spread decreased month on month, and the assets expanded steadily. The net interest margin of the company in the first quarter was 2.32% (vs.2362021), which decreased. We judged that it was mainly due to the drag of asset side pricing level under the background of economic downturn, which was in line with the industry trend. From the perspective of scale expansion: 1) in the first quarter, the asset scale increased by 11% (vs.10.9%, 2021) year-on-year, maintaining a steady growth, of which the loan scale increased by 13.7% (vs.12.9%, 2021), the corporate loan and retail loan increased by 9.32% and 3.71% year-on-year respectively, and the proportion of new corporate loans reached 59.2%. The credit supply continued to tilt towards corporate business, increasing the investment in transportation infrastructure Credit extension in key areas such as clean energy; 2) On the liability side, the company’s deposit scale maintained double-digit growth. At the end of the first quarter, the total deposit realized a year-on-year increase of 10.2% (vs.9.6%, 2021), of which the personal deposit increased by 5.16% compared with the beginning of the year. The new deposits were mainly one-year value deposits and below, and the high-cost deposits continued to drop.
The asset quality remained stable and the provision level remained high Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) the non-performing rate at the end of the first quarter was 0.82%, which was the same as that in the fourth quarter of the month. The annualized non-performing rate of the company in the first quarter was 0.60%, an increase of 2bp year-on-year, both of which remained at the low level of comparable peers. On the one hand, due to the fact that the company’s ability to repay loans was lower than that at the end of the quarter, the overall asset repayment rate was still 48.0%, which was mainly caused by the company’s forward-looking judgment, but the overall asset repayment rate was still lower than that at the end of the quarter. The company’s provision coverage rate at the end of the first quarter was 413.6%, down 5.03pct from the beginning of the year. Under the background that the State encourages large banks to reduce the provision coverage rate in an orderly manner, it is expected that the elasticity of provision back feeding profit will increase in the future.
Investment suggestion: Retail transformation has achieved initial results and is optimistic about valuation repair Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) as the only large state-owned bank positioned as a retail bank, the retail intensive operation mode has been further improved, the retail credit factory mode has been upgraded from provincial branch centralized operation to national centralized operation, and the retail credit post loan centralized management system with the linkage of head office, branch and branch and the national centralized collection mode have been promoted to further improve the cost input-output efficiency. Combined with the company’s first quarterly report, we maintain the company’s profit forecast for 22-24 years, with corresponding EPS of 0.96/1.09/1.25 yuan and corresponding profit growth rate of 15.9% / 14.4% / 14.4% respectively. At present, the Pb of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) corresponds to 0.64x/0.58x/0.52x for years 22, 23 and 24 respectively. Considering the company’s solid customer base on the liability side, the potential improvement space on the asset side and the asset quality performance of leading peers, we maintain the company’s “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the economic downturn leads to higher than expected pressure on the quality of industrial assets. 2) The decline in interest rates led to a narrower than expected industry interest margin. 3) The increase of cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises leads to the rise of credit risk.
