\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 87 Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) )
Event overview: on April 29, 2022, the company released its annual report for 21 years, with a revenue of 12.577 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 8.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 965 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 95.96%. Meanwhile, the company released the first quarterly report of 22 years, with 22q1 revenue of 3.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 251 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.56%.
The performance of 21 years was in line with expectations, and the profit of 22q1 increased month on month. In 21 years, the company’s revenue was 12.577 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 8.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 965 million, a year-on-year increase of + 95.96%, in line with market expectations. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was 3.247 billion, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.61% and a month on month increase of + 9.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 147 million, a year-on-year increase of – 22.94%. It was mainly due to the epidemic and lack of core, which led to the decline of Q4 global automobile sales, with a year-on-year decrease of – 14.8%, and the one-time costs and freight charges of the closure of some overseas factories exceeded expectations, which dragged down the company’s Q4 performance. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 3.359 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 5.1% and a month on month increase of + 3.76%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 251 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.46% and a month on month increase of + 70.52%. The profit side improved significantly month on month, mainly due to the company’s promotion of refined management strategy, the construction of global organizational structure system, and the continuous realization of the company’s profit inflection point. 22q1 company’s four fee rate was 13.49%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.22pcts. Among them, the ratio of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses was 2.65% / 5.60% / 4.55% / 0.68%, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.67pcs / + 0.03pcs / – 0.73pcs / – 0.85pcs. Under the multiple effects of chip shortage, rising raw material prices and shipping costs and the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the company can still maintain high profit growth month on month, reflecting its business toughness.
The localization of air suspension ushered in the first year, and China has 2.48 billion orders to be released. In the 21st year, the air suspension business achieved a revenue of 631 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 19.07%, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic and chip shortage on the overseas market; However, the gross profit margin increased to 16.81%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.75pcts. The stripping of AMK’s non air suspension core business has achieved initial results, and the profitability has been significantly improved. The localization of air suspension business has made continuous breakthroughs. At present, the assembly line of China’s motor and air supply unit has been completed, and AMC Anhui has contributed 27.78 million revenue for the first time in 21 years, marking that the localization of air suspension has been on the right track. According to the current high-speed increase of orders in China, the company will usher in an annual increase of 8.5 billion yuan, which is expected to bring an increase of 2.45 billion yuan in the future.
The intelligent chassis strategy continues to be promoted to comprehensively meet the transformation of Electric Intelligence in the industry. The intelligent chassis business significantly improves the value of the company’s supporting bicycles. With the deep localization of the core product suspension, the company’s business is expected to continue to lead its competitors, achieve import substitution and become the leader of automotive electronics globalization. The value of a single car in the company’s traditional business is only a few hundred yuan, and the value of a single car in the hollow suspension, lightweight and thermal management pipeline of the intelligent chassis system is tens of thousands of yuan, which is significantly improved, and is expected to open up the market space of the company. Through the early M & A, integration and reverse landing of European global enterprises in China, the air suspension and pipeline business has strong business barriers and large cost reduction space. In the future, with the company’s continuous “completion and reinforcement” of the industrial chain of relevant products, the company is expected to achieve import substitution and become a global leader in automotive electronic parts. At present, the orders in hand of the intelligent chassis business have exceeded 12 billion, and the volume and price rise together has driven the company’s performance and valuation.
Investment suggestion: the smart chassis business is advancing smoothly. We have raised the revenue forecast for 22-23 years. It is expected that the company will achieve a revenue of RMB 13.807/15.016 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.184/1.392 billion from 2022 to 2023. The revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company introduced 2024e are RMB 16.598/1.560 billion, and the current market value corresponds to 13 / 11 / 10 times of pe13 from 2022 to 2024. As a global leader in non tire rubber, it is expected to enjoy a valuation premium and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuations lead to low gross profit margin expectations, new product expansion is less than expected, exchange rate risk, etc.
