\u3000\u3000 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600)
Event: on the evening of January 13, the company issued an announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 3.15 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 43%; After deducting the impact of land compensation (436 million yuan), the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 2.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 23%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about RMB 2.194 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 21%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 will be -461 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 316 million yuan; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -1.022 billion yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 160 million yuan.
The sales volume grew steadily and the online performance was excellent: in 2021, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) continued to maintain the growth trend. In terms of volume, the cumulative output of the beer industry from January to November 2021 was 33.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. We expect that the sales volume of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) is basically consistent with the industry trend. Although the sales volume of Q4 has declined slightly due to repeated epidemics in many places, it is still expected to achieve median single digit growth throughout the year. The online performance of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) continued to shine. During the "double 11" Shopping Festival in 2021, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ranked first in the beer category on tmall platform, and ranked first in brand sales on the day of double 11. The official flagship store of beer category on JD platform was the first in the whole process from November 1 to November 11. According to the public data of Taobao, tmall and other platforms captured by the third-party database, in 2021, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) brand achieved a total sales of RMB 284 million on Alibaba online platform, ranking first among all beer brands.
Actively layout high-end products and expand high-end competitive advantages: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) comply with the high-end development trend of the industry, give full play to its own product R & D advantages and further enrich the high-end product matrix. Since 2021, the company has successively launched BGM pear white beer, rose red white beer and other new products, and launched the legend of super high-end new product I in January 2022, subverting the traditional beer consumption concept with high malt concentration (23.9 ° P), high alcohol concentration (10.5%) and long storage time (three-year taste appreciation period). The legend of the first world positioned the 1000 yuan price band, breaking the ceiling of the current Chinese beer price band. The frequent launch of high-end new products shows the excellent product power of the company, and adds chips for Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) to enter the high-end field when consumers pursue quality.
There is great pressure on the cost side, and the company has raised the prices of many of its products: since 2020h2, the prices of raw materials and packaging materials such as barley, corrugated paper, glass and aluminum cans have continued to rise, and the cost side of beer manufacturers has been under pressure to varying degrees. In order to alleviate the cost pressure, companies have raised prices in the off-season. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) in December 2021, the price of 1903 tinned beer was increased by 9% and that of white beer tinned beer by 13%. The price of Qingdao classics was raised outside Shandong in January 2022, with a price increase of 2 yuan per box. As the prices of raw materials and packaging materials continue to rise, the company has great pressure on the cost side. It is suggested to pay attention to the rhythm of price increase in 2022.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: according to the company's performance pre increase announcement, taking into account the impact of land compensation (436 million yuan), we raised the net profit in 2021 to 3.15 billion yuan (11.66% higher than the previous time), maintaining the net profit of 3.480/4.057 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, equivalent to EPS of 2.31/2.55/2.97 yuan from 2021 to 2023. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 39x / 35x / 30x from 2021 to 2023. The current share price corresponds to 35xpe in 2022, which has fallen below the valuation center in recent three years, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: deterioration of market competition; Weakening of channel control; The cost of raw materials has risen.
