\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 819 Tianneng Battery Group Co.Ltd(688819) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 8.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.34%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 438 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.35%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 335 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.92% and a month on month increase of 27%, slightly exceeding expectations.
The gross profit margin of lead-acid batteries will return to the normal level, which is expected to benefit from the impact of the epidemic and further improve profitability. Last year, due to the sharp rise in the prices of auxiliary materials such as sulfuric acid, tin and ABS, the gross profit margin of lead-acid batteries was significantly lower than that in the same period in history. At present, the price transmission mechanism has been smoothed out, and the cost control of auxiliary materials has been increased through centralized procurement, and the gross profit margin in the first quarter has been significantly improved. It is expected that the annual gross profit margin of the business will be restored to the historical average level in 2022. The epidemic has repeatedly increased the demand for two wheeled vehicles in the downstream, which is expected to further improve profitability this year.
The lithium business strategy is clear, and the investment and expansion of production are accelerated. In the 21st year, the company sold 1.61gwh lithium batteries. With the company's clear strategic direction of the lithium battery sector, the company accelerated the expansion of lithium battery capacity, invested about 4 billion yuan to build a lithium battery capacity of 10gwh / year, and plans to invest about 5.2 billion yuan to build an annual output of 15gwh energy storage and power battery project. At present, the company is actively expanding the capacity of lithium battery, reaching 30gwh by 2025, with a compound growth rate of more than 100%. In the future, with the gradual release of the company's production capacity, the growth of lithium battery business is expected to increase rapidly.
Hydrogen fuel cell: actively layout and realize industrialization. The company's fuel cell products have been mass produced and shipped, realizing revenue, marking the deepening and steady progress of this industrialization process. Based on the establishment of hydrogen fuel cell related companies, the company actively carried out industry university research cooperation and successively obtained 23 patents. In terms of industrialization, the company signed strategic cooperation agreements with Nanjing Jinlong, XCMG group, Geely Automobile and other manufacturers. Among them, the co-produced Kaiwo bus and remote brand bus have been listed in the product catalogue of the Ministry of industry and information technology, marking the successful commercialization of the company's hydrogen fuel cell.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.09 yuan, 3.03 yuan and 4.34 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 46% in the next three years. In 2022, the profitability of the company's traditional business recovered, the safety cushion was stable, and the lithium battery business increased with the production capacity, which is expected to turn around the loss. There was a major turning point in the performance, maintaining the target price of 41.83 yuan and the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of raw material prices or sharp fluctuations, the risk of unexpected capacity construction, the risk of new product technology substitution, and the risk of significant changes in upstream and downstream cooperation.
