\u3000\u3000 Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) (300496)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve an operating revenue of more than 4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 640-680 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.3% - 53.3%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 570-610 million yuan after deduction, with a year-on-year increase of 56% - 67%. The company's revenue performance exceeded market expectations and remained high growth.
In the fourth quarter, the revenue increased again, and the annual performance was bright. In a single quarter, the company expects to achieve a revenue of more than 1.3 billion yuan in Q4 in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 60% and a month on month increase of more than 35%, greatly exceeding market expectations. Recalling that the company's revenue growth slowed down in the third quarter of a single year, which was mainly caused by seasonal fluctuations in orders from downstream customers of the Internet of things, which did not weaken the company's core competitiveness; It is expected that a large number of orders have been delivered and collected in the fourth quarter, driving the high growth of annual performance. In terms of profit, taking the median value of the performance forecast, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 210 million yuan in Q4 of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 40%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of Non Profits of 185 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 87%. Under the background of the company's high salary recruitment of a large number of automatic driving talents, the profit still achieved a relatively high growth.
Three carriages continued to drive, and the shipment of Internet of things exceeded expectations. The businesses of the three sectors still show a high outlook in the case of high growth in 2020. 1) Intelligent software: it is expected that the annual revenue growth of the business will still be more than 20%. During the reporting period, the trend of 5g machine replacement continued, and models such as folding screen led the upsurge. The company deepened its cooperation with head customers such as ov meters and continued to enable the launch of new models. 2) Smart car: the annual revenue growth of the business is expected to reach about 60%. During the reporting period, the company continued to increase the code of automatic driving, announced to enter the field of automatic driving domain controller, and raised the growth limit in the future; At the same time, we will vigorously promote the integrated parking scheme of kanzione tool chain and smartparking, further enrich the product IP and strengthen the ability of in-depth customization + standardized output. 3) Intelligent Internet of things: the annual revenue growth of the business is expected to exceed 90%. Due to the fragmentation of the market and the difficulty of tracking orders, we always believe that the Internet of things is the most undervalued business line of the company. The company has an integrated SOM and related development platform products of "core board + operating system + core algorithm". The shipment of the company's modules in XR, intelligent Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and other popular tracks has increased steadily, forming a platform capacity, constantly expanding the long tail market and showing a multi-point flowering situation. In addition, the company's active layout in edge computing, combined with the world's leading computer vision ability, the industrial quality inspection scheme has penetrated rapidly in panel manufacturers, auto parts manufacturers and other fields; The company is also one of Huawei's core partners, taking the lead in adapting Hongmeng and Euler operating systems, and releasing product solutions such as cloud management platform iotarbor and algorithm store modelfarm. In the future, it is expected to fully enjoy the dividends of Hongmeng and Euler ecological chain and open the third pole of growth.
Focus on potential catalysis to support high growth in the future. Based on the core OS technology, the company has established a reusable platform capability, firmly occupied the three high boom track positions, and the subsequent catalytic factors are sufficient: 1) Qualcomm announced that it will continue to work in the field of intelligent vehicles. After the acquisition of arriver, the automatic driving tool chain has been strengthened, the river platform is expected to be put into mass production in the third quarter of 2022, and the benchmark project is expected to be established. Downstream car companies have gradually improved their recognition of ride platform. Winning BMW cooperation is the best case. The fixed-point harvest car factory is expected to speed up. 2) The company has introduced technological and ecological advantages into the field of Internet of things, accelerated industrial integration and development, and has the ability of platform development and integrated delivery of software and hardware, which can perfectly cope with the fragmentation of consumer Internet of things market. SOM module is expected to continue the trend of rapid volume; At the same time, the company's determination to develop the industry's Internet of things is obvious. New intelligent cube products have been launched one after another, and the engineering team has expanded rapidly. The industry know how has been gradually formed. The industrial quality inspection scheme has the potential for large-scale deployment.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The profit forecast is slightly adjusted according to the performance forecast. It is expected that the compound growth rate of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 46.4% from 2021 to 2023. The company firmly occupies the position of everything Zhilian wave by virtue of "technology + ecology", and has solid logical support in the short, medium and long term. It will give 75 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 175.50 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the penetration of Internet of things and Internet of vehicles is not as high as expected; Deterioration of international trade situation; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
