\u3000\u3000 Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) (300496)
Investment Event: on January 13, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 640-680 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.32% - 53.34%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is about 571-611 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 56.04% - 66.97%.
The performance of 21q4 exceeded expectations, with high revenue growth or driving the net profit to fall on the upper side of the range. According to the performance forecast, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 640-680 million in 2021, of which 21q4 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 190-230 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 25.1% - 51.6%; In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit of about 571-611 million yuan, of which 21q4 is expected to realize a net profit of about 165-205 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 66.7% - 107.1%. In terms of revenue, as the world's leading operating system software manufacturer, the company's revenue has regained a high growth rate in 21q4 after a brief slowdown in 21q3. 21q4 company is expected to achieve a revenue of no less than 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 60% and a month on month increase of more than 35%, driving the company's annual revenue to exceed 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. We believe that the company's Q4 revenue returned to a high growth state, with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 60% exceeding expectations, which will probably drive the two net profit indicators to finally fall on the upper side of the estimation range.
The new products of autopilot and intelligent cockpit appeared in ces2022, and the two domains cooperated to accelerate the integration. At ces2022 held from January 5 to 7, 2022, the company also released intelligent cockpit solution and integrated intelligent parking solution based on Qualcomm sa8295 hardware platform. The intelligent cockpit solution based on Qualcomm's sa8295 hardware platform gives full play to the outstanding performance of sa8295 in computing power, graphics and image processing, and creates a one core multi screen intelligent cockpit domain control including digital instruments, central control entertainment, CO driver entertainment, double rear seat entertainment, streaming media rearview mirrors and head up display, realizing the integration of low-speed assisted driving and cockpit domain, And bring user data encryption, storage security, functional security, car to cloud security and other comprehensive security protection. The integrated intelligent parking solution is based on the company's profound on-board os technology, opens up the two technical domains of cockpit and self driving. Based on the redundant computing power of cockpit domain, it not only realizes safe and reliable low-speed parking, but also reduces the cost of the solution. It has a complete product expansion and evolution route of automatic parking, a full stack solution, and a flexible delivery form of IP shelf, Flexible delivery and product landing can be realized. We believe that the company has been taking the operating system as the core and continuously cultivating the core technology, which is expected to consolidate and expand its leading advantage under the trend of integration of two domains of intelligent vehicles and become a leading technology service provider in the industry.
Automatic driving has ushered in a milestone, accelerating the development of the catalytic industry, forward-looking layout, and constantly improving the overall technology and solution capability. In December 10, 2021, the German federal transportation administration (KBA) believed that Mercedes Benz's L3 class automatic driving system was in compliance with the regulations, and approved its L3 automatic driving system. This approval is the first time in the world to give a green light to L3 automatic driving at the level of supervision and rule of law, which promotes the formal entry into force of the legal governance model of automatic driving, and is of great pioneering significance. At the same time, the front loading penetration of L2 automatic driving function in China has also increased rapidly. According to the data of Intelligent Automobile Research Institute of Gaogong, from January to November 2021, the number of forward-looking ADAS (l0-l2) carried by new vehicles (joint venture + independent) in China was 7118200, an increase of 31.76% over the same period of last year, of which the number of L2 ADAS was 3385100, an increase of 78.33% over the same period of last year. The carrying capacity of L2 ADAS continued to grow at a high speed, which will be equal to that of L1 ADAS. We believe that Mercedes Benz's approval of L3 level in Germany is a major breakthrough at the regulatory level, which plays a strong leading and exemplary role in all countries and relevant manufacturers around the world. It will promote the accelerated implementation of L3 function, and the continuous improvement of L2 penetration will further promote the popularization of L2 / L2 + function. The combination of the two will drive relevant industries to usher in new development opportunities. As an industry leader in intelligent vehicle operating system and middleware, the company has certain technology and product reserves at all levels of automatic driving. Suzhou Changxing intelligent driving, a newly established joint venture in November, is committed to exploring intelligent driving and the future vehicle computing platform market, focusing on high-level driving assistance system, and constantly improving the overall technology and solution ability of intelligent driving. At present, the automatic driving industry has ushered in a new wave of development, and the company is expected to stand at the forefront of the industry and stand out in the competition.
Investment suggestion: we raised the company's profit level forecast. It is expected that the company's EPS forecast from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.55/2.21/3.02 yuan (previously 1.48/2.15/2.95 yuan), and the P / E corresponding to the current stock price will be 90 / 63 / 46 times respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk warning events: 1) 5g promotion and application is not as expected; 2) The supervision of landing was tightened and the promotion of automatic driving was less than expected; 3) Chip iteration and supply are not as expected; 4) The entry of emerging Internet forces and the intensification of industry competition; 5) The risk of technological blockade brought by China US scientific and technological confrontation.
