\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 208 Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) )
Performance summary: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 260 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.7%; Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan, mainly due to the provision of credit impairment loss of accounts receivable of 130 million engineering customers. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 490 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent of 60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.5%, deducting 8.29 million yuan of non attributable net profit.
The upward price of raw materials superimposes the impact of changes in sales structure, and the profitability is temporarily under pressure. In the 21st year, the gross profit margin of the company was 29.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1pp. The decline of gross profit margin is mainly affected by the rise of raw material prices, changes in channel structure and other factors. From the channel side, the company’s gross profit margin of distribution channels is 21.8% (- 2.4pp), and that of bulk channels is 32.3% (- 1.3pp). The decrease of distribution gross profit margin is mainly due to the decrease of gross profit margin at the initial stage of new retail business. In bulk business, the direct / agency gross profit margin has remained relatively stable. However, due to the high direct gross profit margin (35.2% and 25.3% respectively), the overall gross profit margin of bulk business has decreased. Among the two major channels of the company, the proportion of distribution channels reached 21.8% (a year-on-year increase of 13.8pp), and the gross profit margin of distribution channels was low. Therefore, the change of gross profit margin of the company was mainly affected by the change of channel structure. In terms of expense rate, in the initial stage of new business cultivation, the investment of expenses is relatively large. The total rate of the company in 2021 is 15.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4pp. The sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate are + 2.5pp / + 0.3pp / + 0.7pp / – 0PP respectively year-on-year, and the impact of impairment is 1.8pp. Affected by the decrease of gross profit margin and the increase of expense rate, the net profit margin was 8.1%, down 6PP year-on-year. 22q1’s gross profit margin was 24.1% (year-on-year – 4.6pp), mainly due to: 1) the gross profit margin of distribution channels decreased by 3.3pp and that of bulk channels decreased by 2.7pp (mainly due to the increase in the proportion of engineering agents with low gross profit margin); 2) The proportion of distribution channels with low gross profit margin increased (distribution channel revenue accounted for 26%). In terms of expense ratio, the expense ratio of 22q1 increased by 4.6pp (mainly the sales expense ratio increased by 6.8pp), the non net interest rate was deducted by 1.7pp (- 4.4pp), and the net profit increased by 67.5% under the government subsidy in the first quarter.
Accelerate the expansion of distribution channels and adjust the structure of bulk channels. In 2021, the company’s dealer channel achieved a revenue of 690 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%, accounting for 23.8% of the main business revenue. The high performance of the distribution channel mainly benefited from the strength of the company’s new retail business. By the end of 2021, the company had 13469 dealers, an increase of 9895 over the beginning of the year. In 2022, Q1 company maintained high-intensity investment attraction, with 3562 new distributors, up to 17031, and more than 10000 active users, driving the revenue of 22q1 distribution channel to increase by 74.3% year-on-year to 130 million yuan. It is expected that the distribution channel is still expected to achieve bright growth in 22 years. In 2021, the revenue contributed by bulk channels was 2.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%, of which the direct sales of Engineering decreased by 26.2% year-on-year to 1.63 billion yuan, and the agent channel increased by 75.7% year-on-year to 500 million yuan. After the contraction of Evergrande’s business last year, the company’s cooperative real estate developers are mainly central state-owned enterprises such as Vanke, poly, China Resources and China shipping, and the risk is greatly reduced. This year, the growth rate of Q1 revenue is positive, the new retail business makes up for the impact of Evergrande, the painful period of business transformation gradually passes, and the company returns to the growth trend.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.86 yuan, 5.37 yuan and 6.99 yuan respectively, corresponding to 12 times, 9 times and 7 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of changes in real estate policies; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk that the production progress is less than expected; The risk that the cash flow recovery is less than expected.
