\u3000\u3000 Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) (002008)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.950-2.050 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 99.20% - 109.41%, and the net profit deducted from the non parent company is expected to be RMB 1.685-1.785 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 149.64% - 164.45%.
The company's performance in 2021 maintained a high growth trend and reached the equity incentive assessment target. The company's performance in 2021 significantly exceeded expectations. The main reasons are: (1) there is strong demand for equipment in downstream consumer electronics, high-power laser processing and other fields, and product orders maintain a stable growth; (2) Through deepening reform, the company continued to increase R & D and investment in industry-specific equipment business. Orders and shipments of PCB industry-specific equipment, new energy power battery industry-specific equipment, miniled special equipment, LED packaging equipment and other business increased significantly over the previous year. The company is expected to achieve net profit of RMB 1.685-1.785 billion, higher than the assessment target of RMB 1.672 billion in 2021, and meet the equity incentive conditions.
The advantages of system reform are expected to highlight, and the leader of laser equipment has taken a new journey. In 2021, the company will carry out drastic system reform internally, abolish the division system, take the business center as the unit to carry out work, and implement differentiated assessment and incentive methods in combination with the different development stages of each business center, which is conducive to reducing costs and increasing efficiency within the company. The company plans to spin off its holding subsidiary Han's CNC to be listed on the gem, and the IPO registration application has been approved by the CSRC in January 2022. The successful issuance and listing in the future will be the first step of the company's new journey. In terms of business, as Apple's industrial chain enters a new round of product innovation cycle, the successive launch of Mr products and new energy vehicles in the future is expected to start a new round of recovery of capital expenditure, and the company's performance flexibility is prominent.
Benefiting from the improvement of downstream industry prosperity, the company's businesses grew steadily
(1) benefiting from the upgrading of PCB product structure, the demand for PCB equipment surged. 5g technology upgrade will bring strong demand for high-frequency and high-speed PCB boards, and also promote the value of base station PCB. The iterative development of 5g smart phones will also drive the demand for high-performance HDI boards. In addition, the demand for high-end PCB boards from the trend of automobile electrification and intelligence also maintained a continuous upward trend. Chinese PCB manufacturers accelerated production expansion and layout of high-end products, thus driving the growth of PCB equipment demand of the company. The company's PCB business maintains a rapid growth trend. While promoting the company's performance growth, the subsidiary Han's CNC is expected to become the first fruit after the company's system reform if it is successfully listed in the future.
(2) the recovery of 3C equipment industry is expected to drive a new round of recovery of 3C equipment capital expenditure. In 2021, due to the repeated epidemic, lack of core and reduced iteration speed of mobile phone functions, the sales data of smart phones declined. According to IDC data, global smartphone shipments fell 9.35% month on month in the first half of 2021. However, smartphone sales have picked up since the third quarter. According to MIC data, 5g mobile phone penetration is expected to increase from 1.3% in 2019 to nearly 40%. We believe that 5g mobile phones will return to the normal demand trend in 2022. At the same time, with the continuous launch of AR / VR devices, it is expected to drive a new round of recovery of 3C equipment capital expenditure.
(3) the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased, and the new energy business continued to grow. In recent years, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has gradually increased. The global penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 0.1% in 2012 to 3.9% in 2020. By December 2021, the monthly penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has increased to 19.1%. In the context of carbon neutrality, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to usher in a faster growth window in the future, which will drive the wave of production expansion of battery manufacturers. At the same time, in response to this round of production expansion, the company also actively expanded its production capacity and expanded its existing product line, and the new energy business continued to grow rapidly.
Maintain the "buy" rating. We raised the previous performance forecast and estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 15.838 billion yuan, 19.665 billion yuan and 23.951 billion yuan respectively (the predicted values before adjustment are 15.539 billion yuan, 19.216 billion yuan and 23.316 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 32.62%, + 24.17% and + 21.79% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.974 billion yuan, 2.586 billion yuan and 3.127 billion yuan respectively (the predicted value before adjustment was 1.872 billion yuan, 2.426 billion yuan and 2.994 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 101.63%, + 31.03% and + 20.92% respectively; EPS is 1.85 yuan, 2.42 yuan and 2.93 yuan respectively. According to the share price on January 13, 2022, the corresponding PE is 25, 19 and 16 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the shares pledged by the controlling shareholder and the actual controller account for a relatively high risk; Risk that R & D progress is less than expected; New business expansion is less than expected risk; The downstream expansion progress of PCB industry is less than the expected risk; The prosperity of the new energy industry is less than the expected risk.
