\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 714 Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) )
Event:
The company released its 2021 annual report. The company achieved annual revenue of 78.890 billion yuan, an increase of 40.18% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.85%; The non net profit deducted was 6.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.17%.
Comments:
The decline of pig cycle affects the net profit, and the breeding and slaughtering reaches a new high.
In 2021, the company sold 40.263 million pigs, with a year-on-year increase of 122.27%. Although the company reduced the cost to the lowest among large group factories by virtue of the advantages of self breeding and self raising mode, the price of pigs decreased significantly compared with that in 2020, so it is a phenomenon. The company slaughtered 2.899 million pigs and sold 292200 tons of slaughtering and meat business in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 1356%. By the end of 2021, the company has put into operation a slaughtering capacity of 16 million units / year, and plans to put into operation a slaughtering capacity of 30 million units in 2022. The utilization rate of meat production capacity to be slaughtered will be improved, which is expected to bring huge benefits to the company.
Breeding as the core, the development of the whole industrial chain and looking forward to the future.
The company takes pig breeding as the core and develops the whole industrial chain. The company has 2.752 million breeding mothers and more than 900000 reserve pigs. It is estimated that 50-56 million pigs will be sold in 2022. The breeding cost is nearly 16 yuan / kg, which will be further reduced by improving the management efficiency in the future. The upstream feed end of the company has reduced the cost of raw materials by virtue of its scale advantages, and the downstream slaughtering and meat business has expanded rapidly to enhance the stability of the company’s profits.
Profit forecast and rating:
It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 22-24 years will be 960.00124200/152950 billion yuan respectively, the net profit will be -118.092436726171 billion yuan respectively (the original value in 22 and 23 years will be 132.56/25.484 billion yuan respectively), and 12.4/16.4/20.7 yuan / share. The corresponding Pb is the net asset per share, and the BPS is 4.2x/3.2x/2.5x respectively. Referring to the average valuation of the company’s historical value center and comparable companies of China pig breeding company, the company is given 6xpb in 2022, the corresponding target price is 74.40 yuan, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tips
Large scale spread of African swine fever; Pig prices have been low for a long time; The price of feed raw materials rose sharply.
