\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) )
Performance
In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 46.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 154% and a month on month increase of – 14.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 23.7% and a month on month increase of – 81.8%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 980 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 41.4% and a month on month increase of – 85.7%.
The gross profit of Q1 decreased significantly month on month, the high increase of upstream costs and the failure of downstream price increase to meet expectations are the main reasons, and it is optimistic about the recovery of Q2 profits
The company’s Q1 gross profit margin in 2022 was 14.48%, with a month on month ratio of – 10.88%, lower than the market expectation. We believe that the main reasons are as follows: (1) the rising price of raw materials led to the continuous rise of the company’s battery manufacturing cost. Under the background of the shortage of lithium resources and the rising price of lithium, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) vigorously distributed upstream lithium resources in 2021, but it takes a long time from lithium mine to lithium salt output, and gradually consumed low-cost long-term lithium salt orders in the short term, The rigid and rising demand has led to the increasing pressure on the cost side. At the same time, the impact of the epidemic on production scheduling and shipment has declined, and the rise of inventory has caused a concentrated reflection in the near future. (2) The actual situation of Q1 battery price increase in 22 years did not meet expectations. The unit price of the battery is higher than the expected price of . The subsequent price increase of the company will be gradually implemented, and more customers will participate in the metal linkage pricing mode, which is conducive to cost transmission. In addition, the continuous rising trend of the upstream lithium salt price slowed down or even fell slightly in the second quarter. It is expected to give the company a certain slow-release effect on the cost side, and is optimistic about the profit recovery of the Q2 power battery sector of the company.
Q1’s production and sales meet expectations, the leading position remains, and the scale of production capacity continues to expand
According to SNE, the company’s Q1 global installed capacity was 33.3gwh, and the market share increased to 35%, ranking first in the industry. Considering the stock demand of vehicle enterprises, we expect the company’s battery sales in Q1 to be 50gwh. Mom – 15%, in line with expectations. Due to the impact of the recent epidemic, the company’s production scheduling and shipment are delayed, which is expected to gradually recover in May. However, the demand for new energy vehicles is rigid, the demand for energy storage is rising, and the annual shipment may double compared with last year. Through the establishment of subsidiaries, equity participation or cooperation, the company has carried out almost all aspects of the upstream layout of the battery. For the relatively scarce upstream lithium resources, the company ensures the supply of lithium resources through investment, long-term cooperation, self exploitation and recycling. Focus on R & D and long-term growth. In order to meet the demand of high growth in downstream, the company’s capacity scale has expanded rapidly. By the end of 2021, the company has a battery capacity of 170gwh. It is expected that the company’s capacity plan will exceed 650gwh in 2025.
Investment suggestion: considering the factors such as the rising cost of raw materials and the repeated impact of the epidemic on the production scheduling of enterprises, we revised the net profit attributable to the parent company in the year 22 / 23 / 24 to be RMB 239 / 387 / 56.1 billion, with a corresponding P / E of 40 / 25 / 17, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the increase of raw materials is higher than expected, the increase of battery price is lower than expected, and the development of the industry is lower than expected.
