\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 499 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the 22q1 quarterly report. The 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 2.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.26%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 345 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.81%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 331 million, a year-on-year increase of - 1.60%.
Under the interference of weather epidemic and the high base in the previous period, the revenue of 22q1 increased steadily. 22q1 company Dongpeng special drink / other drinks achieved revenue of 1.907 billion yuan / 93 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.89% / + 50.53%. The company's revenue remained resilient growth under the interference of climate and epidemic situation. The sales volume of large single product 500ml gold bottle Dongpeng special drink continued to grow, driving the overall revenue growth. The volume of other drinks was small and the growth rate was high.
The cost pressure continues, the expense rate rises slightly, and the profit side is under pressure. The gross profit margin of 22q1 company is 43.19%. Considering the year-on-year -3.10pct after the change of accounting standards, the main reason is the rise in the price of packaging raw materials such as pet and white granulated sugar. In 21 years, the company's pet digested the rising cost pressure by locking the price in advance. At present, the pet price is still at a high level, and the cost pressure is expected to rise significantly in the whole year of 22 years. The sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate of 22q1 company were 16.84% / 3.48% / 0.45% / 0.36% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.45pct / + 0.33pct / - 0.12pct / + 0.49pct. The increase of sales expense rate was mainly caused by the increase of advertising and freezer delivery. The increase of management expense rate was mainly due to the increase of management personnel salary and information investment. The main reason for the increase of financial expense rate was the increase of interest discount expense of 22q1 letter of credit. The net interest rate of 22q1 company was 17.18%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.80pct.
The growth rate of East China and central China is leading, and further explore channels to promote nationalization. 22q1 achieved revenue of RMB 785 million / 10.36 million / 1.51 billion / 28 million respectively in Guangdong / nationwide / direct / online, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.07% / + 25.60% / + 11.43% / + 102.79%. The company achieved steady growth in intensive cultivation in Guangdong market, and the national expansion was smooth. The growth rate outside the province was higher than that inside the province. Among them, the growth rates in East China and central China reached 34.82% and 35.15% respectively, leading the growth rate. The number of distributors of 22q1 company reached 2438, a net increase of 126 compared with the end of 2021; The number of terminal outlets nationwide reached about 2.16 million, an increase of 70000 over the end of 2021. Compared with the number of 4 million terminal outlets of Red Bull, the company still has room for expansion. We believe that the company's nationalization strategy is clear and the market potential outside the province is large. At present, the company's brand pull and consumer stickiness are enhanced, which form a strong support for promoting nationalization. Moreover, the "energy +" product matrix is expected to help the company develop more consumer groups, and the company can expect long-term high growth.
Investment suggestion: at present, the company's packaging raw material cost pressure is still large, which may affect the annual performance of 22 years, but in the long run, the company continues to promote nationalization, the high growth of revenue is guaranteed, and the profit is flexible after the cost pressure is eased. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of RMB 8.723104.77/12.330 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.0% / 20.1% / 17.7% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.358/1.793/2.154 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.9% / 32.0% / 20.1% respectively, and the corresponding EPS was 3.40/4.48/5.38 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the expansion outside the province is less than expected; The promotion of new products is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies
