\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 94 Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) )
Performance summary: the company released the annual report of 2021, and achieved revenue of 3.71 billion yuan (+ 62.3%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan (+ 30.9%); The net profit deducted from non parent company was 190 million yuan (+ 34.7%). Among them, single Q4 company achieved an operating revenue of 1.12 billion yuan (+ 24.8%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 58.041 million yuan (- 5.5%), and the company’s annual revenue increased steadily and its performance improved significantly in 2021. In 2022, Q1 company achieved revenue of 770 million yuan (+ 3.3%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 42.483 million yuan (+ 27.4%); The net profit deducted from non parent company was 42.474 million yuan (+ 30.4%).
Affected by the rising prices of raw materials and sea freight, the profitability is under pressure in the short term. In 2021, the overall gross profit margin of the company was 12.6%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6pp. The decrease in gross profit margin was mainly caused by the increase in operating costs caused by the inclusion of transportation costs in contract performance costs this year. In terms of products, the gross profit margin of adult bicycles of the company in 21 years is 13.1% (- 2.1pp); The gross profit margin of children’s bicycle is 16.9% (- 4.9pp); The gross profit margin of accessories is 10.8% (- 1.1pp). In terms of sales mode, the gross profit margin of OBM mode is 17.4% (- 14.5pp); The gross profit margin of ODM model is 12.5% (- 0.9pp); The gross profit margin of the trade model is 10.9% (- 2.5pp). In terms of expense rate, the overall rate of the company in 2021 is 5.9% (- 2.8pp). The company’s sales expense ratio is 4.2% (- 1.4pp); The management fee rate is 0.8% (- 0.2pp); The R & D expense rate is 0.5% (- 0.1pp); The financial expense ratio was 0.4% (- 1.1pp), mainly due to the year-on-year decrease in exchange losses. Overall, the company’s net profit margin was 5.5%, down 1.3pp year-on-year. The net operating cash flow was 2.71 million yuan (- 98.7%), mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and the increase in purchase amount.
22q1 cash flow improved and profitability repaired. 22q1 gross profit margin was 12.7% (- 2.4pp), which was mainly affected by changes in income standards and exchange rate fluctuations in the first quarter. In terms of expense rate, the overall expense rate of 22q1 company was 5.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7pp, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 4.2% (- 3.4pp) / 0.9% (+ 0.1pp) / 0.7% (+ 0.2pp) / – 0.1% (0.5pp) respectively. The net interest rate was 5.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 1pp. The net operating cash flow was – 2.08 million (+ 98.7%), which was mainly due to the increase of sales receipts compared with the same period last year, and the overall improvement of cash flow. Looking forward to the follow-up, as the price of raw materials stabilizes and the RMB exchange rate returns to normal, the profitability of the company is expected to continue to improve during the year.
The volume of new electric mopeds increased, and the core products maintained a high growth rate. In terms of products, adult bicycles achieved an operating revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.5%; Children’s bicycles achieved an operating revenue of 740 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.7%. As the company’s core products, adult and children’s bicycles benefited from the change of consumption mode after the overseas epidemic, and the number of consumers buying bicycle products online increased. At the same time, bicycles replaced public transport and private cars in the middle of short-distance travel, driving the rapid growth of the company’s adult and children’s bicycle sales. Power assisted electric bicycles achieved an operating revenue of 360 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 101.1%. The penetration rate of power assisted electric bicycles in Europe, America and other countries is in the stage of improvement, and the market scale is growing rapidly. The company’s power assisted electric bicycles have increased in large quantities with high-quality products, and the sales scale has increased significantly. At present, the company still has sufficient orders for electric mopeds, and its revenue is expected to maintain rapid growth. The operating revenue of motorcycles / accessories was 13.23 million yuan / 1.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 61.4% / + 73.9%.
ODM business increased rapidly, and the growth rate of independent brands was steady. In terms of regions, overseas operating revenue reached 3.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%; Domestic operating income was 4.76 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.72 million yuan. In terms of sales mode, OBM mode achieved an operating revenue of 470 million yuan, an increase of 31% year-on-year. Independent brands still maintained steady growth despite tight transportation capacity and blocked delivery in the fourth quarter; ODM mode achieved an operating revenue of 2.26 billion yuan, an increase of 72.7% year-on-year; The trading mode achieved an operating revenue of 970 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.2%. It is expected that with the promotion of the company’s overseas storage layout, the company’s goods preparation and delivery mechanism is expected to be smoother and meet the needs of overseas b-end and C-end customers in a more timely manner.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.51 yuan, 2.04 yuan and 2.55 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 19 times, 14 times and 11 times respectively. “Hold” rating is given for the first time.
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuations in the price of raw materials, the risk of sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate, the risk of intensified international trade frictions, the risk of intensified industrial competition, and the risk that the production of new capacity projects is less than expected.
