\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 007 Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) )
Event: the company released the quarterly report of January 2022, and the operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 641 million yuan (+ 2.77%) / 234 million yuan (- 8.40%) / 216 million yuan (- 9.59%). Cash flow from operating activities was 58 million yuan (- 78.0%).
The performance is slightly lower than expected, and the gross profit rate decreases slightly, which is expected to be related to the product structure. Q1 revenue of 641 million yuan (+ 2.77%) is mainly from blood products (vaccine revenue of 14.58 million), with a gross profit margin of 60.6% (- 2.6pp). It is expected to be related to the product structure in a single quarter. At present, the price of blood products is stable. The sales expense was - 42.8% year-on-year, which is expected to be due to the decrease of promotion activities in the first quarter, the management expense was - 25.4% year-on-year, and the R & D expense was + 16.4%. It is expected that the main reason is the increase of vaccine R & D expenditure. Other income decreased by 43 million yuan in the same period, mainly due to the decrease of government subsidies related to daily activities. The supply of Q1 blood products of the company is expected to be normal. According to the batch issuance data of the Central Inspection Institute, we expect the batch issuance of albumin to increase by 200% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of nearly 70% compared with 2020. It is expected that the epidemic situation in some key areas will affect the demand side and transportation of hospitals.
It is expected that the blood products business is expected to achieve stable growth in 2022, which is expected to benefit from the 14th five year plan of pulp stations in many provinces, and the growth of pulp volume will be further opened. In 2021, the company's pulp collection volume reached 1000 tons +. In the past five years, the approval of pulp stations in the whole industry has become stricter, and the number of newly approved pulp stations is small; During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the number of approved pulp stations in China is expected to increase Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) as a leading company, it is expected to benefit from the 14th five year plan of pulp station and further open the growth of pulp volume.
The company's tetravalent influenza vaccine for children was approved, and the vaccination scope was expanded to people under the age of 3. According to the company's announcement, the drug registration certificate of tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine (children's dosage form). China's first tetravalent influenza vaccine for children has been approved, which will gradually replace the trivalent influenza vaccine. The vaccination scope of tetravalent influenza vaccine has been expanded to people under the age of 3, basically covering all age groups. At the same time, the company's awareness of influenza vaccine in China has gradually increased, and more regions have included influenza vaccine into immunization planning or medical insurance coverage, and the penetration rate is expected to continue to increase. According to public information, at the same time, the company has also passed the on-site inspection of the company's influenza vaccine in Ukraine and Turkey. After the expansion of the company's influenza production capacity, it will be able to supply more regions and countries After Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) vaccine subsidiary goes public, it is expected that the company will accelerate the development of enriched vaccine pipeline.
Investment suggestion: Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) as a leading company, it is expected to benefit from the 14th five year plan of plasma station, further open the growth of plasma volume, and the blood products business is expected to continue to maintain stable growth. The company's awareness of influenza vaccine in China is gradually improved. At the same time, more regions include influenza vaccine into epidemic prevention plan or medical insurance coverage, and the penetration rate is expected to continue to increase After Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) vaccine subsidiary goes public, it is expected that the company will accelerate the development of enriched vaccine pipeline. We expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 1.397/15.85/1.687 billion, corresponding to eps0.01 billion 77 / 0.87/0.92 yuan, corresponding to 22 times, 19 times and 18 times of the valuation from 2022 to 2024. After correction, the company entered the layout stage. Continue to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the supply of slurry is less than expected, the demand of tetravalent influenza is less than expected, the release of production capacity is less than expected, the risk of price fluctuation and the risk of safe production.
