\u3000\u3000 Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) (605006)
The company released the performance forecast of the annual report in 2021, and the annual revenue is expected to be RMB 2.53-2.97 billion, an increase of 26.7-48.7% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 510-590 million yuan, an increase of 195.1-246.4%.
Key points supporting rating
Q4 increased revenue and reduced profits month on month: Taking the median value of performance forecast as a reference, Q4 company expects a revenue of 690 million yuan, a month on month increase of 13.1% and a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 103 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 28.5%.
Both volume and price rose, and cost was the main reason for the decline in profits: according to Zhuo Chuang information data, the average roving price of Q4 company was 6261.5 yuan, up 4.2% from 6007.1 of Q3. Considering that the company has completed the ignition of the third line technical transformation by the end of October 2021, and the production capacity has increased from 60000 tons to 100000 tons, it is expected that the Q4 output will be released slightly and the volume and price will rise together. On the cost side, the rise in coal prices inhibited the profitability of thermoelectricity, the rise in natural gas prices raised the cost of glass fiber, and Q4 profit fell month on month.
Looking forward to Q1 month on month improvement: at present, glass fiber prices are basically flat month on month compared with Q4, coal and natural gas prices have dropped significantly, and the incremental capacity of technological transformation has been fully released. Q1 is expected to be generally good in 2022.
The industry pattern is improving and we are still optimistic about the glass fiber industry: we continue to recommend the glass fiber industry. Driven by wind power, automobile and electronics, the demand is expected to continue to perform; Energy consumption and other constraints increased, and new supply is expected to slow down. The growth rate of demand is higher than that of supply, and the industry pattern continues to improve. In addition, with the improvement of the performance of glass fiber products, the growth of the industry is prominent, and the cycle attribute is expected to gradually smooth. We continue to be optimistic about the glass fiber industry and the future growth of the company. Valuation
Considering the rising cost of Q4, we slightly adjusted the company’s performance. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company’s revenue will be RMB 2.75 billion, RMB 3.25 billion and RMB 3.93 billion respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, 700 million yuan and 870 million yuan respectively; EPS was 1.11, 1.41 and 1.73 yuan, maintaining the company’s overweight rating. Main risks of rating
Production capacity exceeded expectations, demand declined more than expected, and natural gas prices rose
