\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In the whole year of 21, it is expected to achieve revenue of 30.665 billion yuan (+ 101.79%), net profit attributable to parent company of 10.21 billion yuan (+ 209.2%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 10.18 billion yuan (+ 206.5%), which is basically consistent with the previous performance express. Net operating cash flow was 8.51 billion yuan (+ 143.3%). The quarterly net profit of RMB 2.405 billion (+ 4.805 billion) was basically consistent with the previous quarterly performance of the express report (+ 2.405 billion).
The company announced the first quarter report of 2022. In Q1, the revenue was 8.841 billion yuan (+ 125.2%), the net profit attributable to the listed company was 1.923 billion yuan (+ 105.0%), and the deduction of non net profit was 1.923 billion yuan (+ 101.2%), which was within the scope of the previous performance forecast.
HPV + covid-19 vaccine drives the rapid growth of performance. The year-on-year growth rate of Q1 was 86.88% and that of q2.42 billion was 86.88% and 86.39% respectively, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.92%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 938 / 4552 / 2913 / 1805 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 81.7% / 360.7% / 199.1% and 119.4%. Among them, the income of agency products is 20.93 billion yuan (+ 50.0%), and the gross profit margin is 30.0% (year-on-year -13.9pp), which is expected to be mainly due to the increase of procurement costs; Independent products amounted to 9.7 billion yuan (+ 707.6%), with a gross profit margin of 90.1% (year-on-year + 4.2pp). Anhui zhifeilong Kema, a subsidiary, has a revenue of 8.418 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.580 billion yuan.
The strong demand for HPV series products drives the rapid growth of Q1. In the first quarter of 2021, the operating revenue was 3.927 billion yuan (+ 49.04%), and the agency revenue can refer to the parent company’s revenue, which was 3.562 billion yuan (+ 39.7%). The demand for HPV series products is strong, and MSD is expected to increase its supply in China, and the income of agency products is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.
The pipeline under research has made steady progress, and its own large products have entered the harvest period. 1) The micro card has been approved, and China’s tuberculosis market has a large space. It is expected to drive the profit growth of independent product lines in large quantities from 2022; 2) Human rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cells) is expected to report production soon; 3) Tetravalent influenza, tetravalent combined meningococcal vaccine and 15 valent pneumonia are in clinical phase III; In addition, the components DPT and inactivated rotavirus entered clinical phase I. the Tetravalent Recombinant norovirus vaccine (Pichia pastoris) is a vaccine that has not been marketed outside China and has obtained the clinical research license.
Investment suggestion: the HPV vaccine series represented by the company is expected to promote the company’s performance to continue to maintain high-speed growth, steadily promote the pipeline under research, gradually enrich the independent product line, and increase the proportion of independent products. The heavy product micro card has been approved and is expected to contribute a large profit. We expect the profit of 22-24 years to be 8.795109.0/11.722 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 5.50, 6.81 and 7.33 yuan, and the current price corresponding to PE of 21-23 years is 17 times, 14 times and 13 times. At present, the valuation is low, so we continue to give “recommended” rating.
Risk prompt: risk of changes in centralized purchase policies; Market competition risk; R & D risk.
