\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 345 Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 9.272 billion yuan (+ 33.1%), net profit attributable to the parent company of 682 million yuan (+ 13.0%), operating revenue of 2.339 billion yuan (+ 24.2%) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 204 million yuan (+ 17.7%) in 2022q1.
The main business grew steadily, and the growth rate of rice flour products was bright. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 9.272 billion yuan (+ 33.1%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 682 million yuan (+ 13.0%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 560 million yuan (+ 0.5%). In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 2.339 billion yuan (+ 24.2%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 204 million yuan (+ 17.7%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 178 million yuan (+ 14.0%). The company’s revenue is in line with expectations. Last year’s Q4 profit was slightly lower than expected, and 2022q1 profit was higher than expected. In 2021, the main business income was 8.6 billion + 23.47%, frozen products was 259 million, XINHONGYE income was 470 million (consolidated in August, about 380 million after deducting surimi income internally), and Kung Fu food was 33.38 million yuan (consolidated in September). In 2022q1, the main business is close to 2 billion (+ 8.5%), XINHONGYE is 320 million (excluding internal deduction, 216 million), Mr. frozen products is 100 million, a significant increase, and Kung Fu food is 22.78 million yuan. Revenue meets expectations.
According to products, rice products are growing rapidly under the influence of the epidemic. In 2021, the revenue from surimi products reached 3.478 billion (+ 23.07%), meat products 2.142 billion (+ 19.16%), rice flour products 2.054 billion (+ 23.6%), and dishes products 1.429 billion (+ 112.41%). In 2022q1, the revenue from surimi products reached 750 million (+ 1.3%), meat products 479 million (+ 0.04%), rice flour products 511 million (+ 16.59%), and dishes products 516 million (+ 129.88%). Advance receipts performed well. At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the company’s contract liabilities + other current liabilities were 966 million yuan, an increase of 478 million yuan month on month.
Rising costs and consolidation affect profitability. In 2021, the net profit margin was 7.4% (- 1.3pct), mainly due to the company’s gross profit margin of 22.1% (- 3.6pct) and management expense rate of 3.4% (- 0.8pct). In 2022q1, the gross profit margin of the company is 24.2% (- 2.3pct, which is lower for XINHONGYE and Mr. frozen products with more outsourcing in the same period), the net profit margin is 8.7% (- 0.5pct), the sales expense rate is 10.3% (- 0.7pct), and the management expense rate is 3.0% (- 0.3pct). According to the split of 22q1 profit, XINHONGYE’s profit level fluctuated in a certain quarter and was higher than that of the main business. Mr. frozen products, due to the pickled cabbage incident in the industry in March affecting the sales of large single products, and the net interest rate of Q1 decreased compared with that from January to February. After the main business restored the equity incentive expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent fell by only one digit under the high base. The estimated net interest rate of the main business was 8.7% – 8.8%, which was higher than the previous expectation, mainly due to surimi The main cost of meat decreased and the cost input was reasonably controlled.
Q1 hot pot ingredients BC coordinated to make up for the loss of demand, rice flour products are still in the replenishment stage, and dishes are growing rapidly. In 2021, the revenue from surimi products reached 3.478 billion (+ 23.07%), meat products 2.142 billion (+ 19.16%), rice flour products 2.054 billion (+ 23.6%), and dishes products 1.429 billion (+ 112.41%). In a single quarter, the revenue of surimi products reached 750 million (+ 1.3%) and meat products 479 million (+ 0.04%) in 2022q1. The b-end of hot pot materials was damaged. The b-end was compensated through BC channel coordination and C-end sales, and the rice flour products reached 511 million (+ 16.59%). At the end of the first quarter, affected by the logistics and production caused by the epidemic, the C-end of many varieties was out of stock, and they are still replenishing supply one after another. The revenue of dish products continued to grow at 516 million (+ 129.88%).
At the end of the first quarter, the advance collection level was high, the channel collection was positive, and the logistics was waiting for improvement. At the end of 2021, the company’s contract liabilities + other current liabilities were 487 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 222 million yuan. At the end of Q1 in 22, it was 966 million yuan, an increase of 24.48% at the same time, an increase of 478 million yuan month on month, more than 316 million yuan at the end of Q1 in 21. Under the background that the epidemic affected the shortage of goods, the channel collection was more positive, and the logistics began to improve marginally in mid and late April.
Looking forward to the whole year, from the cost side, the cost of soybean protein is high this year. The fish paste was stable and decreased, the chicken increased and decreased, and the pork decreased more. It is estimated that the cost of surimi and meat will decrease slightly in 2022, and the cost pressure of flour, oil and soybean protein will be greater. This year, more refined internal cost management, monthly review, PK, evaluation guidance, analysis of gross profit margin of each single product, etc. In the past 21 years, there has been a large investment in various expenses. In the past 22 years, opportunities to improve the efficiency of expenses have been explored in various links such as the reduction of the number of promotion personnel. From the perspective of cost, if the fluctuation of raw materials is small, the profitability is expected to improve steadily. In addition, the company has decided to build an’jing kitchen project as a business department and go hand in hand with Mr. frozen products. It is expected to acquire xinwuliu in two steps this year. It is expected that the compound double-digit production capacity will be released every year in the future. Considering the certain uncertainty of overseas raw material supply chain, we will strengthen the guarantee of Chinese upstream raw materials (surimi) and cooperate with XINHONGYE to jointly develop the crayfish business.
Profit forecast and Valuation: we expect the revenue growth rate to be 25.2%, 20.38% and 21.3% from 2022 to 2024, and the apparent parent net profit growth rate to be 46.99%, 22.24% and 21.76%. After deducting the impact of equity incentive expenses, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of the same caliber was 42.04%, 31.15% and 26.2% respectively. The target price was 146 yuan, corresponding to 35x in 2023, maintaining the buy rating
Risk tip: the epidemic affects sales and the risk of rising raw material costs.
