Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, the stock indexes fell rapidly at the beginning of the session, and then maintained shock adjustment. The trend of weight blue chip was depressed, and the subject stocks also performed poorly. In the afternoon, the stock indexes continued to dip down until the closing, and the three stock indexes all fell by more than 1%. The market sentiment was depressed and the profit-making effect was general.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the two markets fell again on Thursday, which greatly dampened the enthusiasm of investors. At present, the overall trend of the market is still weak, showing a situation of rising for one day and falling for one day repeatedly, lack of hot topics and lack of profit-making effect. At present, the rotation speed between plates is very fast. After a sharp rise, pay attention to stop the profit in time. the overall index has little downward space, but the risk of high-level theme stocks remains. In the short term, it continues to bargain hunting and ambush undervalued sectors .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the stock index continued to shake and rest below 3600 on Thursday, and the profit-making effect was weakened. The selling pressure after the rebound of track stocks was large, and the net outflow of funds from northbound showed that the market selling pressure was still large, which still needs further observation. it is expected that the market is expected to stabilize in repeated shocks, Pay attention to the rotation rhythm of plates and the change of volume energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Huaxin securities mentioned that A-Shares fluctuate repeatedly, and the current trend opportunity has not appeared. According to the previous market perspective, at present, the probability is in the stage of shaking and grinding the bottom, so there is no need to panic about the market falling again. Even if the new low is reached again, the major indexes will have bottom signals of different time-sharing levels, Each bottom building stage always conforms to the structure and repeatedly pulls back and forth .
Guosheng Securities believes that from the perspective of institutional position adjustment cycle, it is difficult to complete the significant change of position structure in the next few trading days, there are still great differences in the later stage, and it is the most difficult to operate at present. However, due to the rapid withdrawal, after the release of short-term risks, market sentiment will eventually return when there is no significant bad economic data, liquidity data and policy guidance. Some suggestions can appropriately consider low absorption near the annual line at this time.
In the macro aspect, Shanghai Securities said that the focus of monetary policy in the future will still focus on structural adjustment in a neutral and stable manner. And to reduce the financing interest rate, the interest rate reduction will be promising . After the current inflation inflection point is formed, the market interest rate will shift downward, and the time for interest rate reduction is further ripe. There may be a possibility in the first quarter. However, the neutral tone of monetary policy remains unchanged, monetary growth remains stable, and the future monetary environment will be volume stability and price reduction.
In terms of operational strategy, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that under the guidance of "stable growth", the real estate policy is expected to increase moderately, driving the bottom of the valuation of relevant targets . However, the direction of structural transformation is clear, and the profitability of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises may face a greater test. In addition, we predict that the policy easing in the first quarter is expected to be strengthened, but the range is relatively limited. After all, "stability" and ensuring people's livelihood are the core objectives of China's policy regulation. It is suggested to appropriately adopt defensive allocation in the short term, focus on the consumption sector that must be selected for undervaluation, and further pay attention to the marginal changes of monetary and industrial policies to tap structural opportunities.
In addition, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) mentioned that the prospect of consumer inflation this year is relatively clear, historically, the performance of the consumer sector often benefits from inflation, so we believe that this year's consumption will contribute to the universal opportunity .
First, grasp the Profit Dividend brought by the decline of cost margin. We believe that we can deploy high-quality assets with small stock price fluctuation and stable fundamentals. High quality assets generally belong to the top companies in various fields, and the income scale is large. Therefore, once the cost inflection point is formed, the performance elasticity of large-scale companies is relatively large.
In addition, pay attention to the sustainable growth of emerging market segments and their leading companies: at the beginning of the opening of market segments such as prefabricated dishes, frozen baking, health products, probiotics and plant protein , the high performance growth of relevant listed companies is expected to continue, providing better investment opportunities for weak markets.
Third, the bottom opportunities of hotels, scenic spots, catering and other sectors are accumulating , which is expected to form a more determined reversal market compared with 2021. However, the first quarter is a period of frequent outbreaks, and the market is still waiting for this trend.
Finally, seize the reversal opportunity in the pork industry chain . At present, the pig price is experiencing the last decline. It is generally believed that the pig price has completed the bottom stage from April to June this year, and then entered the upward cycle. During the period, the stock raising and meat products sector increased by 38.15% and 33.98%. Compared with the huge decline since August 2020, there is still a lot of room for reversal.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that "steady growth" should continue as the main line, and manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround. 1) Areas potentially supported by marginal change or development of policies, including industrial chains related to stable demand for infrastructure and real estate (construction, building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), potential consumption support areas, securities companies, etc. .
2) for the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, aviation and hotels, etc. .
3) the short-term share prices of the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year may be suppressed, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors. The potential turnaround depends on the change of market style again. The potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
