\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 139 Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd(601139) )
Event:
The company released its 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarter report. The company’s revenue in 2021 was 21.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.46%; In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 6.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.92%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 227 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21.04%.
Comments
The upstream and downstream of the main business of urban combustion expanded steadily, driving a year-on-year increase of 42.6% in revenue in 21 years. In terms of customer expansion, by the end of 2021, the company’s pipeline gas users had reached 5.74 million, with a net increase of 1.38 million, and the net increase scale increased by 142.1% year-on-year. In Shenzhen, there were 1.01 million new urban village residents and 1.03 million urban village gas supply and ignition households throughout the year, and a total of 1002 urban village pipeline gas entered the village and entered the household. There are 3.75 million pipeline natural gas users in Shenzhen; Outside Shenzhen, the company’s business scope has been expanded to 13 provinces and 57 cities (districts) across the country. In terms of gas sales volume, the annual sales volume of pipeline natural gas in 21 years was 4.024 billion m3, with a year-on-year increase of 22.01%. Among them, the sales volume of urban fuel in Shenzhen was 1.04 billion m3, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; The sales volume of the power plant was 1.324 billion m3, with a year-on-year increase of 21.4%; The sales volume of urban fuel outside Shenzhen was 1.66 billion m3, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%. Driven by the growth in the number of users and gas sales, the company achieved a revenue of 21.415 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 42.6%. In addition, on the upstream resource side, the company has successively signed two LNG long-term agreements, Guangdong Dapeng TUA and Bibi (China), adding an annual LNG supply of about 570000 tons / year to further improve the supply chain.
High gas prices increased the pressure on the cost side, and the comprehensive gross profit margin fell by 6 percentage points in 21 years. In 2021, the tightening of natural gas supply led to the continuous high operation of international gas prices. The rise of upstream gas prices continued to put pressure on the cost side of the company. The annual operating cost increased by 54.15% year-on-year, and the cost growth rate was higher than the revenue growth rate, which reduced the comprehensive gross profit margin by 6 percentage points to 19.78% year-on-year. Among them, the gross profit margin of the relatively rigid pipeline gas sector at the price end was 14.61%, down 12.99 percentage points year-on-year; The gross profit margin of the upstream resource sector, including natural gas and petroleum gas wholesale, was 3.71%, down 8.14 percentage points year-on-year. The rise in costs combined with the rise in period expenses brought about by M & A made the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q3 / Q4 fall by 18.9% and 34.6% respectively year-on-year in 21 years. In addition, the pressure of high gas prices continued to be transmitted to 22 years, the cost of Q1 in 22 years continued to increase significantly by 68.95% year-on-year, and the performance decreased by 21.04% year-on-year.
The acquisition of Swick cut into the photovoltaic track and accelerated the development of the comprehensive energy sector. In 2021, the company successfully controlled Swick, the world’s second largest photovoltaic film enterprise, and expanded its comprehensive energy business to the photovoltaic field. From September to December of 21, Swick realized 1.73/2 billion yuan of revenue and net profit respectively; In 2012, Q1 achieved a revenue of 1.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 92.35%; The net profit was 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%. In addition, the company actively explored the operation of photovoltaic projects, acquired 210MW photovoltaic ground power stations, and invested in the development of three roof distributed photovoltaic projects in Shenzhen, Dongguan and other cities. Photovoltaic, thermoelectric and comprehensive energy supply fields made concerted efforts to drive the comprehensive energy revenue of 2.507 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 309.59%.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the gross margin pressure in 22 years continued to stack, and the sales volume was lower than expected. The performance forecast was lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 1.43/18/2.05 billion yuan (2.06/2.2 billion yuan before 22-23 years), corresponding to 12.9/10.2/9 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the upstream price rises more than expected, the downstream demand increases, the gas consumption of the power plant is less than expected, the risk of goodwill impairment, etc
