\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 48.678 billion, a year-on-year increase of 153.97%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.49 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23.62%, lower than expected.
The price of raw materials increased sharply, and the cost impacted the gross profit margin. According to the wind data. The price of lithium carbonate was 271500 yuan / ton on December 30, 2021, and rose to 502500 yuan / ton on March 31, 2022, an increase of 85% (the price of lithium carbonate was 60 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 00 yuan / ton in the same period last year). The cost of raw materials has risen sharply, and the company is also actively negotiating with downstream vehicle manufacturers. Due to the time difference and the lack of smooth price transmission, the gross profit margin has declined. The gross profit margin of Q1 in 2022 was 14.48%, down 11.8pct from 2021.
In the 21st year, inventories increased significantly, and the provision for asset impairment is expected to be reversed, enabling subsequent outbreaks. In 2021, the company's inventory was 40.2 billion, including battery inventory of 40.19 GWH. It is estimated that the corresponding inventory is about 30 billion and material inventory is about 10 billion. The price of lithium carbonate increased by 85% in the first quarter, and the cost of the company's 10 billion inventory is lower than that of last year. In addition, the impairment loss of inventory falling price and contract performance cost last year was 1.88 billion, but the price of main raw materials still increased significantly this year. The impairment loss of assets accrued in the future is expected to be reversed and the profit of the company will be thickened.
The rise in product prices is expected to be reflected in the second quarter and is expected to pass the darkest hour. According to the company's public communication, the company has actively negotiated with downstream auto enterprises to jointly deal with the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, and has made progress. It is expected that the rise in product prices will be reflected in the second quarter. At present, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped after the impact of 500000 yuan / ton. With the release of lithium supply side, it is expected that the price will not rise further and the company's profit will be improved.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 26.3 billion / 340 billion / 49 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 102% / 29% / 44%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.0 billion yuan / 35.5 billion yuan / 52.9 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 44.35% / 54.34% / 48.94%. EPS is 10 / 15 / 23, and the current share price corresponds to PE is 38 / 25 / 17. Give a valuation of 40 times in 2023, with a corresponding market value of 1419.8 billion and a corresponding share price of 609 yuan. Give a "recommended" rating for the first time.
Risk warning: the release of the company's production capacity is less than expected; The continuous rise in the price of raw materials leads to the rise in the cost of the company; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
