\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 99 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 56.536 billion yuan, yoy + 10.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 114 million yuan, yoy-92.71%; Deduct 827 million yuan of net profit not attributable to parent company, yoy-56.90%.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the volume reduction and price increase, and the revenue of 22q1 slowed down month on month. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 56.536 billion yuan, yoy + 10.68%. The revenue volume decreased and the price increased, and the growth rate slowed down. We expect that the main reason is that the sales volume of kitchen food in the first quarter of 2022 decreased year-on-year due to the impact of China's multi-point epidemic on logistics and transportation, terminal sales and catering, superimposed on the weak economy, sluggish consumption and intensified market competition.
The gross sales difference improved month on month, and the actual income tax rate increased, resulting in the deterioration of profits. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's gross profit margin was 7.15%, with a year-on-year increase of -6.12pct and a month on month increase of + 0.45pct. It is estimated that the main reasons are: (1) affected by the dry weather in South America, the expectation of soybean output and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of the company's main raw materials such as soybean, soybean oil and palm oil have increased rapidly and sharply, resulting in a sharp rise in product costs. Although the company has raised the prices of some products, it does not fully cover the rise in raw material costs; (2) Weak demand has greatly affected the profits of medium and high-end retail products. The sales expense rate of 22q1 was 2.97%, with a decrease of 1.75pct. Under the influence of the epidemic, the cost was tightened. To sum up, the gross sales difference of 22q1 was 4.18%, year-on-year -4.37pct, month on month + 0.11pct, and the gross sales difference was still improved month on month. The management expense rate of 22q1 company decreased by 0.27pct to 1.36% at the same time, and the cost control was relatively strict. In addition, the company's 22q1 effective income tax rate is 67%, with a year-on-year increase of + 32pct and a month on month increase of + 55pct. It is expected that due to the tax rate differences of different subsidiaries, some high tax rate companies have better profits and some low tax rate companies have losses. Overall, the net interest rate of 22q1 company was 0.20%, with a year-on-year ratio of -2.87pct and a month on month ratio of -0.51pct.
The central kitchen and condiment business are still in the spotlight, and equity incentive shows confidence in long-term development. Relying on the company's rich grain and oil product matrix, national production base and logistics supply chain system, the central kitchen project realizes the industrialization of table food, which is expected to become a new performance driver of the company. Hangzhou central kitchen project is expected to be put into operation in the second quarter of 2022, which will be the preliminary water test of the central kitchen project. In terms of condiment business, the company's Wanzhuang soy sauce phase II project in Taizhou is under preparation, and the production capacity will double after completion. At the same time, the company is preparing to build a factory in Yangjiang, Guangdong, and plans to produce Cantonese soy sauce. In the future, the company will adopt dual brand and dual strategy to develop soy sauce business. The company's Liangfen vinegar factory in Shanxi is also expanding its production. In addition, the company recently issued the restricted stock incentive plan for 2022 (Draft). The equity incentive has a wide coverage, stable objectives and high achievement, which helps to bind the core backbone interests for a long time, effectively stimulate the enthusiasm and motivation of the team, and ensure the medium and long-term high-quality and stable development.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. Considering the higher than expected increase of upstream raw materials and the repeated impact of the epidemic on the recovery of downstream demand, we expect the company's revenue in 22-24 years to be 2571 / 2896 / 321.7 billion yuan, net profit to be 57.43/101.41/11.849 billion yuan and EPS to be 1.06/1,87/2,19 yuan respectively (1.21/1.51/1.78 yuan in the previous time), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: food safety risk, risk of sharp rise in raw material prices, hedging risk and risk that new business expansion is less than expected.
