\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) announced that the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022 achieved revenue of 66.209 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 15.51% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.377 billion yuan, an increase of 17.15% at the same time; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 23.328 billion yuan, an increase of 16.67% at the same time; 22q1 realized an income of 27.548 billion yuan, an increase of 13.25% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.823 billion yuan, an increase of 16.08% at the same time; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 10.842 billion, an increase of 16.35% at the same time.
In the past 21 years, the growth was steady and the structural improvement was more obvious. In 21q4, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 16.488/6.050 billion respectively, with an increase of 11.19% / 11.84% respectively. In terms of products, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) liquor achieved double-digit growth in 21 years, of which price increase was the main contribution (7.4%), which was mainly due to the rise in price per ton of liquor driven by the increase of unplanned proportion, while the volume increased by 3.8%, which was due to the impact of digesting deferred delivery in 21 years. According to the actual channel research, the market dynamic sales showed stronger; The series of wines increased significantly by 50.7%, of which the price increase contributed 30.7% and the volume increase contributed 15.3%, mainly due to the remarkable results of the series of wine brands after slimming and focusing, and the growth of medium and high-end brands is more obvious. Sub channel splitting: due to the vigorous development of enterprise customer group purchase and online direct sales in the past 21 years, the sales revenue of direct sales mode increased by 64.4%, and the proportion of revenue increased by 5.2pct to 17.51%, which is also conducive to the promotion of the company’s long-term profit level.
22q1 meets expectations and takes the initiative to alleviate channel pressure. The revenue performance of 22q1 met expectations and accelerated compared with that of 21q4. The gross profit margin benefited from the price increase of core products such as puwu and 1618, increased by 1.98pct to 78.41% year-on-year, the expense rate remained basically stable, and the operating profit margin increased by 1.51pct to 55.06%. In terms of payment collection indicators, sales collection reached 13.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.8%, while notes receivable increased by 4.434 billion month on month, mainly due to the company’s relaxation of note policies to alleviate the financial pressure of dealers under the epidemic. At the same time, according to channel research and feedback, some major merchants received more payments in December 21. On the whole, the company’s payment collection progress is positive, and the channel capital pressure is not high, which is also more conducive to supply side reform.
The goal of double-digit growth of annual income is expected to be completed with little difficulty. It is officially proposed in the annual report of 21 that the company’s total operating revenue will continue to maintain a steady growth of double digits. We believe that it is not difficult to complete: at present, the progress of payment collection and delivery in puwu is good, and the dynamic sales from March to April are affected by the epidemic to a certain extent. As planned and unplanned sales will be signed into the contract this year, the contract volume in 22 years is higher than that in 21 years, and the delayed delivery in 21 years leads to a large actual market dynamic sales volume. Therefore, we believe that the completion quality of the plan in the first quarter of this year is good. At present, the channel feedback that the dealer’s inventory is benign. With the recovery of the epidemic and demand in East China and other places, the social inventory is expected to be further digested. With the gradual rise of the wholesale price, it is expected that the channel inventory and thrust will be in a more favorable position in the peak season of the Mid Autumn Festival and national day.
Pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities brought by the upward rating. In early March, we made an in-depth report on “what is behind the weakening of prices?” The price logic and trend are deeply analyzed. Under the background of little pressure on growth volume this year and the company’s urgent need to ensure favorable price results, there are four changes on the supply side that are conducive to the upward rating. With the introduction of channel management policies in the off-season, we believe that there is a high probability of upward rating this year. At present, the approval price has rebounded slightly to 980 yuan, and it is expected that there will be more obvious performance after the epidemic in East China recovers. The new management is centered on the core team of the previous session. Generally, the reform will be stronger after the new management takes office, and the supply side reform is expected to continue and deepen. At present, the valuation discount of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) higher end liquor sector (Maotai, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ) is obvious, and there is a large space for repair. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities catalyzed by the improvement of rating and the deepening of reform.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: maintain the “buy” rating. We maintain the profit forecast for 20222023 unchanged and increase the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 75.5/87.9/10.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0% / 16.5% / 15.1%; The net profit was 27.2/321/36.7 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2% / 18.3% / 14.1%, the corresponding EPS was 7.00/8.28/9.45 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE was 23 / 20 / 17 times respectively, which is highly recommended.
Risk tip: the global epidemic continues to spread, competition in the high-end wine industry intensifies, and food quality accidents.
