\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Performance summary:
It was announced that in 2021, the total revenue was 20.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%, the net profit was 7.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, and the net profit margin increased by 2.4 percentage points to 38.5%. 4q achieved a revenue of 6.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%, and recorded a net profit of 1.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41%, exceeding expectations.
It was announced that in 2022q1, the revenue was 6.31 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26%, and the net profit was 2.88 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 32.7%. Dividend scheme: cash dividend of 32.44 yuan per 10 shares
Throughout 2021, the company maintained a good upward momentum and handed over the first answer paper of the 14th five year plan under the guidance of the development policy of “fine management to increase benefits and precision marketing to expand the market”. Focusing on “double brands, three lines and large single products”, the company has gradually improved its brand matrix and launched strategic new products such as Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952 and black cover. With the promotion of various marketing activities, the brand influence has increased significantly. In the whole year, the revenue of medium and high-grade liquor reached 18.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29.22%, the volume and price increased by 25.4% and 3% respectively, and the revenue of other liquor reached 2.02 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 9%, which is mainly affected by the decrease of Erqu sales. The proportion of medium and high-end Baijiu increased by 3.56 percentage points to 90.12%. Under the effect of structural optimization and price increase, the gross profit margin in 2021 increased by 2.7 percentage points to 85.7% year on year, and 4q increased by 2.6 percentage points to 84.4%.
Under the guidance of the concept of precision marketing, the economies of scale effect of the company in the reporting period was further strengthened. During the reporting period, the cost rate decreased by 1.18 percentage points to 22.17% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the sales cost rate decreased by 1.12 percentage points year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2022, driven by the steady collection of Spring Festival funds and dynamic sales, the company made a successful start and the brand potential continued to rise. It is expected that the growth of large single products such as Guojiao 1573 and Tequ will be steady, and the gross profit margin will increase by 0.4 percentage points to 86.4% year-on-year. In terms of expenses, affected by equity incentive expenses, the management expense rate increased by 0.43 percentage points to 4.38% year-on-year. However, due to the stable launch of marketing expenses, the sales expense rate decreased by 2.82 percentage points to 10.66% year-on-year, and the expense rate during the period decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 14.67% year-on-year.
In 2021, the company continued to deepen its internal reform. During the year, it established Dazhou flavor sales company, launched equity incentive plan, further improved the construction of brand and product matrix, and worked steadily to forge ahead with the goal of returning to the top three in the industry. We believe that the company will further accelerate the pace of sprint this year, accelerate the breakthrough of sales scale and management efficiency. In the short term, although the second quarter is affected by the epidemic and is a traditional off-season, with the improvement of the epidemic and the recovery of consumption scenes, the company’s performance is expected to maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the net profit will reach 10 billion yuan and 12.32 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 25.8% and 23% respectively. The EPS will be 6.80 yuan and 8.37 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 31 times and 25 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” investment proposal.
Risk warning: the mobile sales of the terminal are less than expected, and the impact of the epidemic is more than expected
