\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 618 Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) )
The quarterly profit of the parent company is RMB 118.8 yoy billion, and the net profit of the parent company is RMB 2.7 billion, with a deduction of 2.6 yoy + 2.5% for the first year. The total amount of new orders signed by 22q1 company was 319.11 billion yuan, yoy + 13.7%. The performance was in line with expectations, and the revenue and profit continued to increase.
The new signing of income increased significantly, and the effect of expense control was remarkable
22q1 revenue grew rapidly on the basis of 21q1 high base, CAGR + 23.2% higher than 19q1 revenue. 22q1 company’s newly signed project contract amount is 310.5 billion yuan, yoy + 13.9%, accounting for 97% of the total newly signed contract amount. Among the newly signed orders of more than 50 million project contracting, housing construction / Infrastructure / metallurgy / other businesses signed 1737 / 426 / 456 / 39.3 billion yuan respectively, yoy + 18.6% / – 15.1% / + 13.0% / + 61.9% respectively. Housing construction and metallurgy continued to grow rapidly, and the proportion of 22q1 housing construction newly signed increased, yoy + 1.6pct to 57.7%.
22q1 company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 10.5%, yoy-0.9pct. It is speculated that the rise of steel price will have a certain impact on the gross profit margin, which may be alleviated in the future. The ability of expense management and control was improved and the pressure on net interest rate was effectively relieved. The expense rate during 22q1 period was 5.3%, yoy-0.4pct; Under the comprehensive influence, 22q1 company’s net profit attributable to parent company was 2.3%, yoy + 0.0pct, which remained stable.
The turnover of the two funds is accelerated, and the cash flow is under pressure in stages
22q1 company’s asset liability ratio is 73.5%, yoy + 0.6pct; The interest bearing debt ratio is 21.1%, yoy + 1.5pct. The turnover of the two funds (inventory + contract assets + accounts receivable) continued to accelerate, 22q1 with 210 days of turnover, a decrease of 23 days year-on-year. 22q1 net operating cash flow increased by 1.6 billion to 14.5 billion year-on-year. It is speculated that the Centralized Settlement of engineering, labor and materials before the Spring Festival will have a certain impact; The net cash flow from investment increased by 5.4 billion to 2.2 billion year-on-year.
Diversified layout contains growth flexibility and maintains the “buy” rating
We maintain the previous performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 10.2/11.7/13.5 billion, corresponding to 22% / 15% / 15% of yoy respectively. Continue to be optimistic about the diversified layout and growth prospects of the national metallurgical engineering team, the high prosperity of resource development is expected to be sustainable, and the prospects of emerging businesses (such as electronic grade silicon materials) are also worth looking forward to. Maintain the company’s 22-year 10x target PE, corresponding to the target price of 4.92 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of infrastructure investment is lower than expected, the risk of sharp fluctuations in metal prices, the demand for high nickel batteries is lower than expected, the risk of accidents in the operation of mineral projects, and geopolitical risk
