\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 658 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) )
Profits maintained rapid growth and non interest income performed well Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) 22q1 achieved a year-on-year increase of 17.8% (vs 18.7%, 21a) in net profit attributable to parent company, which was slightly slower than that in 21 years, but still maintained at a high level, in line with our expectations. In the first quarter, the revenue increased by 10.1% (vs11.4%, 21a) year on year. In terms of split, 1) Q1 net interest income increased by 4.1% (vs6.3%, 21a) year on year, which was mainly dragged down by the year-on-year narrowing of net interest margin; 2) Q1 intermediate business revenue increased by 39.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.2pct compared with 21 years. We expect that it is still driven by wealth management business. By the end of Q1, the company’s AUM exceeded 13 trillion, and the number of wealth customers increased by 9.0% to 3.88 million compared with the end of the previous year. In the downturn of the capital market in the first quarter, the company’s wealth management business still achieved good development, reflecting the remarkable results of the company’s steady promotion of the construction of wealth management system.
The interest rate spread decreased slightly month on month, and the credit supply was accelerated. The company’s Q1 net interest margin is 2.32% (vs 2.36%, 21a). We expect that the narrowing of interest margin is still dragged down by the asset side. Looking forward to the subsequent quarter of the year 22, considering the regulatory requirements of reducing financing costs, the downward pressure on the company’s asset side pricing still exists. However, compared with other large state-owned banks, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) the deposit loan ratio is still at a low level, there is more room for improvement on the asset side in the future, and the company’s interest rate spread performance is expected to continue to be better than that of its peers. The company’s scale expansion accelerated significantly in the first quarter, and its total assets increased by 11.0% year-on-year, of which the year-on-year growth rate of loans was 13.7% (vs12.9%, 21a). The credit supply remained positive. The overall credit supply structure in the first quarter was biased towards the public, and the scale of corporate loans / retail loans increased by 9.3% / 3.7% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. On the liability side, the company’s deposits continued to maintain double-digit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2% at the end of the first quarter.
The asset quality remained stable, and the provision was better than that of the same industry. The company’s non-performing rate at the end of the first quarter was 0.82%, unchanged month on month, maintaining the lowest level among major banks. The annualized defect generation rate of Q1 was 0.60%, which remained at a low level. In terms of forward-looking indicators, the concern / overdue rate of the company at the end of the first quarter was 0.48% / 0.93% respectively, with a month on month increase of 1bp / 4bp respectively. It is speculated that it is mainly affected by the economic downturn and repeated epidemics, which is consistent with the industry trend, but it is still an excellent level from the absolute level. It is expected that the pressure on asset quality in the future will be controllable. The provision coverage rate of the company at the end of the first quarter was 414%, down 5pct month on month, and the provision level remained abundant. It is worth looking forward to the space for provision to feed back profits in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Combined with the performance of the company’s quarterly report in the first quarter, we maintain the company’s profit forecast unchanged. It is expected that the EPS in Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) 22 / 23 will be 0.97/1.12 yuan and the predicted value of BVPs will be 7.61/8.43 yuan. According to the comparable company valuation method, the target valuation of 22pb of the company was maintained at 0.89 times, the target price was maintained at 6.77 yuan, and the buy rating was maintained.
Risk tips
The economic downturn exceeded expectations; The liquidity risk of real estate enterprises continues to spread; The strength of financial supervision rose more than expected.
