\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 95 Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) )
Event: the company released its first quarterly report. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 13.76 billion yuan (- 24.7%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.46 billion yuan (+ 1.4%), which was in line with our previous expectations.
Meat products: Q1 ton profit is a record high, and the annual profit elasticity is obvious. The company’s meat products business 22q1 achieved a revenue of 6.8 billion (- 4.9%) and an operating profit of 1.75 billion (+ 21.9%). Split the volume and price profit. The external sales volume and ton price of Q1 meat products were about – 2.5% and – 2.5% year-on-year respectively. The sales volume decreased slightly due to ① the inhibition of the Spring Festival epidemic on the sales of banquet and visit scenes and gift box products; ② the short-term impact of the large-scale spread of the epidemic since March on logistics delivery. However, benefiting from the cost dividend brought by the downward price of pigs, the operating profit per ton of 22q1 meat products exceeded 4500 yuan, about + 25% year-on-year, and the profit per ton reached a record high. Looking ahead to Q2 and the whole year, it is expected that the volume and price of the company’s meat products business will remain relatively stable with the support of the epidemic stimulating home scene, just needed goods hoarding and subsequent logistics recovery, and the profit per ton will be significantly at a high level year-on-year in 21 years, so it will contribute a considerable increase to the operating profit of meat products in 22 years.
Slaughtering: the net slaughtering volume is rising, and the resale of frozen meat is temporarily under pressure. From Q2, it will benefit from a low base and form a high growth rate. The company’s slaughtering business 22q1 achieved a revenue of 6.88 billion (- 37.1%), an operating profit of 134 million (- 52.8%), and the sales volume of fresh and frozen meat was about + 6.6%. 1) Pure slaughtering benefited from low pig prices and increased the quantity simultaneously: 3.44 million pigs were slaughtered in Q1 (+ 84.6%), and the profit of fresh products increased significantly compared with the same period last year. 2) The resale of frozen meat is under pressure in the environment of narrowing the price difference between China and the United States: the loss amount of imported frozen meat mainly comes from the impairment of raw materials of meat products (there are basically no high price raw materials after Q2, and such loss should not be repeated). The resale profit of Q1 frozen meat excluding this part is still at the normal level; The amount of connected transactions between Q1 company and ROTEX is 1.28 billion (- 55.5%). Looking forward to Q2 and the whole year, under the background of low pig price, the company’s pure slaughter is expected to continue to benefit and take the opportunity to expand the market share, while the import strategy is expected to be more and more stable.
Outlook for the year: it is expected that there will be an obvious performance reversal from Q2, and the growth rate of q2-q3 is expected to expand quarter by quarter. The improvement trend will be determined under the repair logic of “ton profit release of meat products + slaughter squat take-off” throughout the year. Supported by the low performance base from 21q2, the company’s overall operating profit is expected to accelerate the high growth in q2-q3; Based on mature operation experience, domestic and imported frozen meat may be stockpiled in the first half of the year to help stabilize the cost of meat products after the rebound of pig prices in the second half of the year, and the annual profit per ton of meat products can reach more than 4000. Combined with the current undervalued value, the company has outstanding cost-effective and defensive advantages in configuration, and continues to focus on recommendation.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering the pressure on the cost of 23-24 meat products due to the possible early rise of pig price, we predict that the company’s earnings per share in 22-24 years will be 1.82 yuan, 1.99 yuan and 2.16 yuan respectively (EPS in 22-24 years before adjustment is 1.81 yuan, 2.02 yuan and 2.23 yuan), and the company will be given a price earnings ratio of 23 times in 22 years by using the comparable company valuation method, corresponding to the target price of 41.79 yuan in 22 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The sales volume of meat products is lower than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Slaughter expansion is less than expected risk
