\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
The company released the annual report for 21 years and the first quarterly report for 22 years. The revenue in 21 years was 66.209 billion yuan (YoY + 15.5%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.377 billion yuan (YoY + 17.2%), which was consistent with the performance forecast and ended smoothly. 22q1's revenue was 27.548 billion yuan (YoY + 13.3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.823 billion yuan (YoY + 16.1%), which made a good start.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) products increased steadily, and the ton price increased significantly. In the 21st year, the revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) products was 49.112 billion yuan (YoY + 11.5%), the sales volume was 29203 tons (YoY + 3.8%), the ton price rose by 7.4%, and the volume and price rose simultaneously. It is expected to mainly benefit from the increase in the proportion of unplanned products; The revenue of series liquor products was 12.62 billion yuan (YoY + 50.7%), and the sales volume and ton price increased by 15.3% and 30.7% respectively. The ton price increased significantly, which is expected to benefit mainly from price increase and structural upgrading. By product, it is expected that the general five-year plan will grow steadily, and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will contribute a certain increment. In terms of regions, the eastern, southern, western, northern and central regions achieved revenue of 18.782 billion yuan, 74.30 billion yuan, 16.979 billion yuan, 7.535 billion yuan and 11.005 billion yuan respectively in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 32.4%, 32.1%, - 8.2%, 30.2% and 31.9%. Except for the western region, the growth rate of other regions was high. 22q1's revenue increased by 13.3%. Although the outbreak in some regions had an adverse impact on Baijiu consumption, the company's performance was stable. At the end of the 21st century, there were 2054 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dealers, an increase of 93 over the same period last year, and the channel network continued to expand.
The rise of ton price promoted the increase of gross profit margin and continued to improve profitability. The gross profit margin in 21 years was 75.35% (YoY + 1.19pct), and the rise of ton price promoted the gross profit margin; The sales expense rate is 9.82% (YoY + 0.09pct), the management expense rate is 4.38% (yoy-0.17pct), and the expense rate is effectively controlled; Comprehensive, the net profit margin of sales in 21 years is 37.02% (YoY + 0.53pct). 22q1 gross profit margin was 78.41% (YoY + 1.98pct), which continued to increase; The sales expense ratio is 7.38% (YoY + 0.29pct), the management expense ratio is 3.56% (yoy-0.35pct), and the proportion of taxes and surcharges in the revenue is 14.15% (YoY + 0.41pct); Overall, the net profit margin of 22q1 sales was 41.28% (YoY + 1.06pct), and the profitability was improved.
The wholesale price of puwu increased month on month, and the annual target is expected to be successfully achieved. On the margin, the price of puwu is 980 yuan, which has increased month on month. It is expected that the proportion of product sales will gradually increase after the price increase, and the upward cost will promote the upward price, which is expected to further rise to 1000 yuan in the future. After taking office, the new management gradually implemented actions such as controlling goods and supporting prices, and improved operation and management. The company's 22-year business goal is to continue to maintain double-digit steady growth in total operating revenue, and it is expected that the annual goal is expected to be successfully achieved. With the upgrading trend of Baijiu consumption, the 1000 yuan price band has been steadily expanded, and the puwu liquor is expected to continue to benefit.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Slightly reduce the revenue and increase the gross profit margin. It is predicted that the earnings per share of the company in 22-24 years will be 7.05 yuan, 8.24 yuan and 9.50 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 7.02 yuan and 8.18 yuan). Combined with the valuation of comparable companies, 32 times PE in 22 years is given, corresponding to the target price of 225.60 yuan, and the buy rating is maintained.
Risk warning: weak channel profit, lower price than expected, and risk of food safety events.
