\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 35 Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co.Ltd(000935) )
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 16.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 990 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.3%. Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 980 million, a year-on-year increase of + 58.7%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.4%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was 260 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.8%.
Private equity investment business: funds and direct investment projects have entered the harvest period, and the investment income has increased significantly. In 2021, the income of private equity investment business was 290 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.9%. We judge that it is mainly due to the overcharge of management fees in the early stage and partial return in 2021, which is expected to return to normal in the future.
In 2021, the company realized an investment income of 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 85.0%, mainly the investment income obtained by the two funds managed by the company. 1) Harmony Jinhong: in 2021, the fund realized a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan, the company held 10.01% of its share, and the company obtained an investment income of 130 million yuan; 2) Harmonious Jinyu: in 2021, the fund realized a net profit of 1.77 billion yuan, the company held 15% of its share, and the company obtained an investment income of 260 million yuan. The remaining consolidated loss of about RMB 50 million is mainly caused by the company’s non major investment projects. If this part is excluded, the net profit attributable to the parent company should be about RMB 1.04 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 17%.
In 2021, the fair value of the company changed by 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 340.9%. The income from the third-party fund assets invested by the company is included in the profit and loss of changes in fair value. This asset appreciation includes: 1) the asset appreciation of smart travel fund is 320 million yuan; 2) The assets of harmonious growth phase III Fund increased by 30 million yuan.
Cement business: the income and proportion are gradually declining, and the company is gradually focusing on private equity investment. The revenue of cement business was 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 18.3%, accounting for 76.0% of the total revenue, a year-on-year increase of – 1.3pct. The company has changed its name and main business scope in December 2021, and private equity investment has become the main business of the company. We believe that the cement sector will operate smoothly in the future, and the proportion of future revenue and profit contribution will continue to decline.
The performance of 2022q1 exceeded expectations, and high-quality assets resisted the market downturn: the exit earnings of the company’s funds and direct investment projects were further released. 22q1 company realized an investment income of 420 million yuan, mainly the investment income obtained from the withdrawal of funds and direct investment projects (the company previously announced that it withdrew its share of “Huisuan account” of direct investment projects and obtained an investment income of about 250 million yuan); The loss from changes in fair value is 180 million yuan. We judge that it is mainly due to the decrease in the asset valuation of the third-party fund. For example, the share price of Xiaopeng automobile Q1 invested by smart Travel Fund decreased by about – 40%. If the impact of this part is not considered, the performance of 2022q1 will be higher. We judge that in the future, as the fund seizes the opportunity of rising valuation and exits the project, the income will be further released.
Investment suggestion: the company’s managed funds and direct investment projects have entered the harvest period one after another, and the investment income and performance reward are expected to be further released; At the same time, we judge that the second phase fund is expected to be raised in the future, and the management fee income will also increase. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.48/22.1/3.45 billion (previously estimated to be RMB 1.47/2.19 billion from 2022 to 2023), with a year-on-year growth rate of + 49.2% / + 50.1% / + 55.9% respectively. Maintain the previous valuation judgment and give 20 to the private equity sector × PE, cement sector 6 × PE。 Considering the gradual prominence of the company’s main business of private equity, the profit contribution of private equity and cement business is expected to be 1.36 billion and 110 million yuan respectively in 2022 (previously estimated to be 1.16 billion and 310 million yuan respectively). Therefore, the company was given an overall valuation of 27.94 billion yuan in 2022, and the target price was increased from 32.92 yuan to 36.60 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the company’s historical stock price fluctuates greatly; The investment income of funds and direct investment projects is lower than expected; The landing of the new fund was less than expected
