\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Performance summary:
It was announced that in 2021, the revenue was 66.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, the net profit was 23.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, the net profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points to 35.3%, and the comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 1.2 percentage points to 75.4%. 4q achieved a revenue of 16.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, recorded a net profit of 6.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, and the comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 2.5 percentage points to 75.6%, which is basically consistent with the previous forecast. It was announced that in 2022, the revenue was 27.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and the net profit was 10.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%. The performance was in line with expectations.
Dividend scheme: cash dividend of 30.23 yuan per 10 shares
In 2021, the revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) products of the company reached 49.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The volume and price increased steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% and 7.4% respectively, and the gross profit margin increased by 0.64 percentage points to 85.59%. Focusing on the idea of “taking the promotion of high-quality market share as the core”, the company has steadily promoted its key work, consolidated the market foundation and continuously improved its brand popularity. In terms of products, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has completed the preliminary deployment of highland and key markets and entered the comprehensive layout and formal sales, which is expected to gradually become a new benchmark and improve the brand value.
The revenue of the series of liquor products reached 10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50.7% and 12.62 billion yuan, and the volume and price increased by 15.3% and 30.7% respectively, showing a significant increase, with the gross profit margin increased by 3.99 percentage points to 59.67% year-on-year. The high growth of series liquor comes from the company’s focus on building four national strategic brands: wuliangchun, wuliangchun, wuliangtequ and Jianzhuang. The structure is significantly optimized, the brand matrix is continuously improved, and the manufacturer’s interest community is effectively constructed. During the reporting period, the number of dealers increased by 87 year-on-year, reaching 602 in total.
During the reporting period, the company achieved rapid growth in direct sales channel revenue by means of online direct sales and increasing the circle cultivation of opinion leaders, with a year-on-year increase of 64.4% to 11.6 billion, and the proportion of direct sales mode revenue increased by 5.3 percentage points to 18.8% year-on-year.
In the Spring Festival of 2022, the delivery rhythm of the company was stable, the performance in the first quarter showed steady growth, and the gross profit margin increased by 2 percentage points year-on-year to 78.4%. During the reporting period, the net cash outflow from operating activities was 3.4 billion, which was mainly affected by the epidemic in China. The company reduced the capital pressure of dealers by reducing the proportion of cash collection in advance collection and optimizing order plan management. At present, the market price of the eighth generation and the fifth generation is 980 yuan / bottle, which has risen steadily since the beginning of the year and is expected to stand at 1000 yuan. On the other hand, with the completion of the management replacement, it is expected that the overall strategy will be continued, and the company is expected to continue to make progress while maintaining stability and achieve high-quality development.
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the net profit will reach 27.73 billion and 32.27 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. The EPS will be 7.14 yuan and 8.32 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 23 times and 20 times of PE respectively. The valuation has cost performance and maintains the “buy” investment proposal.
Risk warning: the terminal dynamic sales are less than expected, and the channel reform is less than expected
